Every Christmas, the NBA puts out a strong schedule to showcase its best talents and pit the highest profile teams against one another. It’s even more interesting this season because it will be one of the first opportunities for us as viewers to see these teams in action with the NBA first tipping off on December 22.
Here’s a brief betting guide to get you ready for the day-long marathon of hoops. All lines are courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat (-5) - ESPN
The Pelicans are a bit of a mystery as Zion Williamson enters his first healthy season in the NBA. The club hired former Heat coach Stan Van Gundy to man the sidelines and moved Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee in what became a four-team deal for a bevy of picks, veteran guard Eric Bledsoe, and big man Steven Adams.
The addition of Bledsoe and Adams is interesting as both may not be long-term fits next to Zion and recently extended wing Brandon Ingram, but defensively can help a team that struggled on that end last season. Zion showed he can take over on a limited sample size, and with Ingram becoming a lock to break 20 a night, this offense will fall into place around those two.
Miami proved its ability to be a contender in the East, but I lean with the Pelicans catching five points here. I think they are able to hang on the defensive end and keep this game close. I’d play the Pelicans down to +4.5, but expect Miami will take some money ahead of tip off as the home public play.
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5) - ABC
While Steph Curry does appear to be at full health after a few impressive preseason performances, I’m not sure what to make of the Warriors in 2020-2021.
The team is going to be without Klay Thompson. Draymond Green has yet to see floor action after hardly playing last season and is set to miss the team’s opener against Brooklyn. The Warriors are easing No. 2 pick James Wiseman along, but he should be in the lineup by the time Christmas rolls around. Wings Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. should also expect higher usage this season with Thompson out.
On the other side of the floor, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks retooled the roster with defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday. Milwaukee is one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference once again. The Bucks have blowout potential in this spot against a Warriors team that is going to struggle to generate stops and has some heavy travel plans early on. Even if Green and Wiseman play, there will be some rust and conditioning issues that will make this a one-sided affair.
I lean with Milwukee, but also like the over quite a bit when that is released if it’s in the 228 range.
New Jersey Nets (-1) at Boston Celtics - ABC
Depending on how the first few nights of the season go, this number may rise with the Nets closer to 2-point favorites. Boston has two budding stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but lost Gordon Hayward to free agency. The team also doesn’t expect Kemba Walker to play in the first few weeks of the season with lingering knee issues.
Brooklyn has its full cupboard of players and the early returns on the Kevin Durant-Kyrie Irving tandem is positive. While the game counted for nothing, the Nets won 113-89 in Boston last Friday in a final preseason tune up. If this line stays at around 1 or 1.5, I’d side with the Nets, but if the line climbs, I would side with the over.
Brooklyn doesn’t figure to be a standout defensive team, at least early in the season while it still works through some schematic issues, and I can see this one becoming a bit of a shootout. If the total is anything less than 221, I would side with the over.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5) - ABC/ESPN
I expect a lot of load managing on behalf of LeBron James and Anthony Davis this season after a bubble title and short offseason, but there’s no way they miss this one. With that being said, I find myself leaning with Dallas.
Luka Doncic won’t have Kristaps Porzingis alongside him, but the team did add Josh Richardson this offseason who has looked comfortable early on with the Mavs. Richardson should help out a Dallas defense that struggled last season to back up the team’s historic offense.
I expect Dallas to hang around in this one. I’m not really sure what to expect from L.A., especially early on given the limited offseason and the burden of the bubble title run. Give me the dog while we enjoy our Christmas dinner.
Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5) at Denver Nuggets - ESPN
The night cap features a rematch of the Western Conference Semifinals, where the Nuggets came back from down 3-1 to upset the Clippers. The Clips start their season in L.A. against the Lakers before traveling to Denver for this one, with the Nuggets opening up Wednesday night against the Sacramento Kings at home.
While many are likely going to back the Clips with all the motivation on the visiting team’s side, I keep coming back to Denver. All trends aren’t created equal, but the Nuggets have thrived in this spot since 2005, going 48-38-1 as a home underdog against a team that made the postseason the previous year.
On the surface, this looks like a game the Clippers so desperately need to wash away the blown series to Denver, but in reality, it’s just an early season matchup where both teams will be trying for a win. The Nuggets are at home with a young roster that should only be getting better after establishing itself last postseason. Give me the undervalued home dog to close out the Christmas card.
Recap
New Orleans +5, down to +4.5
Milwaukee -7.5, lean over at anything below 228
Nets -1, up to -1.5, lean over at anything below 221
Mavericks +6.5
Nuggets +1.5