Speculation about a possible 2028 presidential run by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is growing after the progressive congresswoman overtook Secretary of State Marco Rubio in online prediction market odds for the first time this year.
According to a Thursday post from Polymarket on X, Ocasio-Cortez moved into second place behind Vice President JD Vance in the platform’s 2028 presidential election market. Vance led with a 23% chance of winning the White House, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 13% and Rubio at 12%. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., and California Gov. Gavin Newsom were tied at 9%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris stood at 4%.
Polymarket, a major prediction market platform, highlighted the shift as the first time this year that Ocasio-Cortez has surpassed Rubio in its 2028 odds. The move adds to ongoing discussion about potential contenders more than two years before the next presidential election.
BREAKING: AOC overtakes Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential odds for the first time this year, moving into second place.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 13, 2026
13% chance AOC wins the White House. pic.twitter.com/t2nZqV9qx2
Both Ocasio-Cortez and Rubio have been mentioned as possible candidates for their parties’ nominations, though neither has declared a candidacy. Early polling, including a recent survey of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, has shown Ocasio-Cortez competitive among Democrats, while Vance remains the early frontrunner on the Republican side in many forecasts.
Prediction markets like Polymarket reflect the collective betting of participants and can shift quickly based on news, polling, and political developments. They do not predict outcomes with certainty but offer a real-time snapshot of public and investor sentiment.
No formal campaigns for 2028 have begun, and political analysts note that the field remains fluid with midterm elections still ahead in 2026.
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