Buffalo, NY (WBEN) Despite progress in controlling the spread of coronavirus across New York State and Western New York, it remains difficult to predict how the disease will respond to the planned reopening of schools across the state and region.
Efforts continue to flatten the curve of coronavirus in Erie County, but experts say models of the curve are hard to determine how schools will fare as reopening efforts begin.
"If we look at what's happening in Erie County, they're tracking pretty well with what our models have shown over recent weeks," says Dr. Matthew Bonner of UB. But he says it's hard to answer if those models will help schools in reopening.
"The models we developed were intended to inform the health care system on the potential for a COVID19 surge to overwhelm hospital capacity, so we haven't focused on schools specifically," explains Bonner. Bonner says schools are different than general population models. "You would probably need a more sophisicated model to see what is happening in schools," he notes.
Bonner says models are not good at predicting a peak or a surge. "If I look at things happening in the states around us, there's a potential of an increase in the fall, but it's hard to determine how substantial that would be," advises Bonner.
