Hurricane Isaias is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to come ashore along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said in its 4 a.m. Thursday advisory.
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found the eye near latitude 23.3 north, longitude 91.2 west, about 170 miles northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 420 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 80 mph, with higher gusts. The storm was moving east-northeast at 9 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 979 millibars.
Forecasters expect a turn toward the northeast later Thursday and a turn northward on Friday. On that track, Isaias should pass north of the Yucatán Peninsula today and make landfall inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and the storm should still be a strong hurricane as it nears the coast Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend about 15 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 90 miles.
4 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 (Advisory 7) Key Messages for Hurricane #Isaias. Latest info: https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV 4 AM CDT jueves 8 de octubre (Aviso 7) Mensajes clave sobre el huracán #Isaias. Más información: https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV https://t.co/w0ncqO3FZt
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 8, 2026
A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay-Gulf County line in Florida. That covers parts of southern Mississippi, coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, including the Mobile Bay and Pensacola areas. A storm surge warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River in Florida. A storm surge watch continues from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown. Tropical storm warnings cover the coast from the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to just west of Ocean Springs, and from east of the Bay-Gulf County line to the Aucilla River in Florida.
Water could rise 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay, if the peak surge arrives at high tide. The deepest water is expected near and east of where the storm comes ashore, with large and dangerous waves. Residents in the surge warning area are being told to follow evacuation orders from local officials. Preparations for surge and damaging winds should be rushed to completion Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Friday night into early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Friday. Rainfall of 3 to 7 inches, with isolated totals up to 10 inches, is forecast from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle from Friday through the weekend. Much of the Southeast, as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas, could see 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5. Flash flooding, street flooding and isolated river flooding are possible. Isolated tornadoes are possible Friday night along the Alabama coast, the Florida Panhandle and far southwestern Georgia, then Saturday in eastern Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.
Swells are expected to reach the Gulf Coast on Friday and could create life-threatening surf and rip currents. The next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 7 a.m. CDT, with a full advisory at 10 a.m.
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