A popular online prediction market has seen nearly a quarter-million dollars in bets placed on how much snow will fall in the Dallas area this month, highlighting broad curiosity — and skepticism — about winter weather in a region that rarely sees significant snow.
In the Kalshi “Dallas snowfall monthly” market, traders are wagering on thresholds of accumulation that will ultimately be determined by official reports from the National Weather Service once January ends.
Kalshi Inc. operates a regulated exchange where participants can buy and sell contracts tied to real-world events, including weather outcomes like total snowfall in a given month.
On the Dallas market, which resolves based on NWS-verified data, contracts pay out if specific snowfall amounts (for example, more than 0.5 inches or more than 2.0 inches) are exceeded during January 2026. Betting interest in the market has surged in recent weeks as a winter storm system moves through the southern United States.
Meteorologists and weather services are tracking a storm expected to bring a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to North Texas, with projections for the Dallas-Fort Worth area generally favoring lighter snow totals compared with regions farther north.
Forecast models suggest a range of outcomes, from minimal accumulation to a few inches, depending on temperature profiles and storm timing.
Dallas typically averages only a couple of inches of snow per year, and measurable snow is relatively uncommon in January. Historical climate records show variability in winter precipitation, making markets like Kalshi’s appealing to traders who want to speculate on the likelihood of rare local weather events.
Traders in the Kalshi market are essentially putting money behind their confidence in forecasts and weather models: if the total snowfall in Dallas this month exceeds the threshold they bet on, the contract will settle as a winner when the National Weather Service’s official monthly climate report is posted.