There have been anecdotal stories that the Omicron variant isn't as deadly or cause as much damage as the Delta variant. And University of Texas mathematics department chair Juan Gutierrez says while that may be true, this mutation is much, much more contagious. "We're talking about a larger total of cases. Which means that the total number of people requiring some form of clinical support might be larger than the capacity that we have installed, and this going to happen very quickly." He adds "I believe the healthcare system in Texas will be put to a test. It is going to be a stress test."
The sheer number of people testing positive has sky rocketed since the beginning of the year. On January third, the state reported 51 thousand, 481 new confirmed COVID infections and nine thousand, 394 suspected cases and 78 deaths. On Tuesday that grew to 44,431 new confirmed infections and 9,122 suspected cases and 60 fatalities. On Wednesday the new case total was 39,943 with 9002 suspected cases and 92 deaths. The positivity rate is close to 35%.
There are currently over 8100 Covid patients in Texas hospitals.
Gutierrez forecasts Texas case loads will peak around the end of January or the start of February. But he cautions there are many things we don't know about Omicron and says the models they have run can barely catch up.
He says it's difficult to compare what is happening in the United States to what is happening in South Africa. It's believed Omicron originated there and that nation has passed its peak. "If you compare the surge that Omicron caused in South Africa, that was 20% over the previous peak Delta caused by June or July in 2021."
There has been a substantially larger surge in Europe and the United State. He says right now, France is experiencing a peak ten times larger than the previous wave. The wave in the UK is five times bigger and we are approaching and we are approaching that same level. In an email, Gutierrez writes "The SA low-count case as compared to other countries might be due to: (i) naturally acquired immunity due to low vaccinations, (ii) undercount due to a limited reporting system, (iii) limited access to testing, and (iv) a younger population that in general develop less complications."
He notes a large population of Texas has not been vaccinated. 61.32% of Texas have had one dose of vaccine and close to five million have gotten a booster shot. "It is reasonable to expect that many people will be infected, particularly those that do not take the maximum level of protectection. By that I mean K or N95 face masks and a consistent, constant use of that level of protection. We hope that we will not have a large number of severe cases, but even if we have a moderate number, proportionate to our total number of cases our health system might still be in trouble."
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