With Election Day just around the corner, Texas is witnessing one of the tightest and most closely watched election cycles in decades. To break down what early voting numbers really tell us, why national attention has shifted to Texas, and whether the state is genuinely turning purple, Baylor University political science professor Dr. Patrick Flavin sat down for an interview with KRLD.
Here are the key takeaways from the conversation.
1. Early Voting Numbers: Don't Read Too Much Into Them Yet
While early turnout reports show slightly slower participation compared to the historic Beto O’Rourke–Ted Cruz 2018 showdown, Dr. Flavin cautions against using early voting data to predict winners.
"Trying to predict outcomes of races from early voting numbers has often been very inaccurate and hasn’t provided a whole lot of guidance... I wouldn't put too much emphasis or stock into just the early voting numbers."
Historically, Republicans often turn out in larger shares on Election Day itself, making early demographic and party splits notoriously tricky to interpret before the final tallies are counted.
2. The Talarico–Paxton Race Is Exceptionally Tight
The high-profile U.S. Senate clash between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has consistently polled within the margin of error—with Talarico holding narrow leads in several recent polls.
Flavin notes how sharp a departure this is from 2018:
- In 2018, Beto O’Rourke came within three points of defeating Ted Cruz, but rarely led in pre-election polling.
- This cycle, polling has shown Talarico neck-and-neck or slightly ahead for weeks.
- Down-ballot statewide races—including the Governor and Lieutenant Governor seats—are also polling significantly tighter than expected.
Given that Donald Trump carried Texas comfortably just two years ago, having multiple statewide races polling within single digits signals a far more competitive landscape than anticipated.
3. Trump’s Frequent Visits Signal Genuine GOP Concern
Donald Trump’s repeated campaign stops in Texas—including recent appearances backing Paxton—highlight how seriously national Republicans are taking the Texas threat.
"It’s a very clear signal of Republican concern... based on where he’s spending his time and energy, a real recognition that Texas is indeed in play for the U.S. Senate race and maybe for other statewide races."
Historically, Republican presidential figures rarely needed to deploy major campaign resources in deep-red Texas. The fact that high-profile rallies are happening across the state underscores how urgent turnout efforts have become.
4. Outside Super PACs Are Driving the Message
Campaign spending in Texas has shattered expectations, driven not just by candidate committees, but by massive independent expenditures.
Dr. Flavin pointed out that in the Paxton campaign especially, vast amounts of messaging are funded by outside PACs rather than the campaign itself. Because independent groups cannot legally coordinate directly with candidates, campaigns have less direct control over their own closing arguments—a shift that makes Texas one of the testing grounds for modern political ad spending.
5. Hispanic Voter Trends May Be Reversing
One of the most consequential shifts in recent elections was Donald Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters in 2024, particularly across South Texas border communities. However, recent polling suggests those gains may be eroding.
Flavin points to a combination of persistent cost-of-living concerns and pushback against aggressive immigration enforcement measures as reasons why South Texas districts once thought to be safe Republican territory are now fiercely competitive again.
6. What a Democratic Victory Would Mean
A Democratic win in any Texas statewide race would mark the first time since 1994 that a Democrat has captured statewide office in Texas—instantly becoming the headline political story in the country.
However, Flavin warns against immediately declaring Texas a permanent "purple" battleground:
"The big question... is that just because several different ingredients just happened to come together here—persistent high prices, an unpopular president, a candidate with some political baggage—or is Texas actually trending purple? What we'd really want to look to is the 2028 election to tell us if this is a trend or a blip."
Dr. Patrick Flavin is a Professor of Political Science at Baylor University, specializing in American politics, political behavior, and state-level elections.
Baylor University political science professor Dr. Patrick Flavin
Baylor University political science professor Dr. Patrick Flavin
