Talarico untested in statewide race vs  Ken Paxton

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Following a high-stakes Republican runoff, SMU Political Science Professor Cal Jillson joined us to share his expert insights on the shifting dynamics of Texas politics. From the power of the "Trump effect" to the upcoming general election matchups, here are the key takeaways from our exclusive interview.

The "Trump Effect" Dominates the GOP Runoff

Jillson admitted he was surprised by the sheer margin of victory in the Republican primary runoff, where Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn by nearly a 2-to-1 margin. While Paxton held a comfortable lead in the polls prior to Donald Trump's endorsement, the former president's backing provided an unprecedented surge.

"I didn't think it would boost it quite that far," Jillson noted, pointing out that even in the Texas Panhandle—a region where Cornyn performed exceptionally well in the first round of voting—Paxton secured a dominant victory purely driven by the Trump endorsement.

Paxton vs. Talarico: A Looming Battle for the US Senate

With the general election matchup set between Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D), all eyes are on whether Democrats can break a three-decade losing streak in Texas statewide races.

Jillson highlights that while the odds historically favor Republicans, several factors could make this a razor-thin race:

• Candidate Quality: Talarico is a talented politician, though he is untested in a statewide race and must avoid unforced errors on the campaign trail.
• Financial Backing: Talarico is expected to have plenty of funding to effectively make his case to voters.
• National Momentum: This is shaping up to be a strong year for Democrats nationally, which could bleed into Texas.

The Cornyn Factor: A major question mark remains regarding the "mainstream" Washington establishment Republicans who previously backed Cornyn. During the bitter primary, Cornyn explicitly labeled Paxton as "ill-equipped and ineligible" to serve as a U.S. Senator. Whether those traditional establishment voters will fall in line behind Paxton remains to be seen.

Railroad Commission: A Narrow Escape for Bo French

In the Railroad Commission race, Bo French secured a victory, but by a surprisingly narrow margin. Jillson explained that the "MAGA" base, which represents about a 2-to-1 majority within the Texas Republican primary, was just strong enough to pull French—whom Jillson described as a "deeply flawed candidate"—across the finish line.

Because the Railroad Commission is a down-ballot race that most voters don't closely follow, French will heavily rely on straight-ticket Republican voters. However, Jillson warns of a potential trickle-down effect:

"If Paxton were to lose to Talarico, then you would expect Bo French to lose to the Democrat in that Railroad Commission race as well."

The Verdict

With months of intense campaigning ahead until November, both sides are already trading blows. As Jillson puts it, it's going to be a fascinating political season—and we have a front-row seat to the action.