A majority of Americans surveyed in a recent poll believe the U.S. is in a recession, but that’s not the case. Why are people feeling down about the economy even if some economic indicators are up?
Let’s dive in.
According to the results of The Guardian poll conducted by Harris, 57% of Americans said the U.S. economy is undergoing a recession. That’s up 11% since February.
“The U.S. is not experiencing a recession, which is typically defined as two quarters of negative growth,” The Guardian noted. “And last week, the U.S. posted far stronger than expected economic growth figures for the summer months,” and the gross domestic product rose at the fastest pace in two years.
Poll answers varied depending on a variety of factors, The Guardian said. One stark divide was between Republicans, who were more likely to say the economy was doing well under the leadership of their own party and President Donald Trump.
Overall, 45% of the respondents said their financial security was getting worse compared to 20% who said it was getting better. Just 27% of Republicans said their financial security was getting worse, compared to 52% of Democrats. However, even more independent voters (54%) said their financial situation was getting worse and 58% believe the nation is in a recession, concerning data points for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
According to The Guardian, pessimism about the economy “underscores an economically tumultuous year,” defined by tariffs, mass government layoffs and the longest government shutdown in history as well as lingering inflation and affordability issues. It also continues a trend seen during the administration of former President Joe Biden – even though the economy exceeded expectations during his term, Americans were still feeling the pressure of post COVID-19 pandemic inflation and other economic issues and were feeling pessimistic about the economy. Back then, the political divide was also present, with Republicans judging the economy harsher under Biden’s Democratic leadership.
In analysis published by CNN this week, David Goldman said that Trump’s economic proposals are even “starting to sound a lot like Biden’s,” despite his frequent criticism of his one-time political rival as polls continue to show Americans are sour on the economy. For example, Goldman mentioned a proposal from Trump to send Americans a dividend check. He said that comes with a risk of keeping inflation high.
Today, The Guardian said the poll also displayed “what some economists have referred to as the K-shaped economy,” referring to “the divide in economic sentiment between wealthy Americans, who are the largest beneficiaries of a booming stock market, and everyone else.” While 27% of poll respondents making over $100,000 annually said their financial situation was getting worst, 59% of those making under $50,000 said their financial situation was getting worse.
Audacy also noted last week that some of the economic triumphs of Trump’s administration so far – including collecting billions in tariff revenue – don’t necessarily translate to economic relief or benefits for average Americans as they try to pay bills and fill up grocery carts. As The New York Times reported this week, many are heading into 2026 “worried about their jobs, stressed about their finances and unconvinced that things will improve in the new year.”
While the U.S. may not be in an economic recession, Forbes reported this week that we appear to be in a different type of recession, described by leadership presence and trust expert Justin Patton as a “trust recession.” He explained that trust seems to be trending down in customer experience, media, government, companies, nearly everywhere we look.
“The reason why trust is important is it’s the one thing that keeps people coming back again and again,” Patton said in a recent interview. “I don’t care if it’s your marriage, employees in a company, or your customers. So how do we create an experience that makes people feel seen and feel like they belong? That’s ultimately the goal.”
Forbes cited the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer, which found that political polarization combined with deepening fears have given rise to “a widespread sense of grievance” against business, government and wealthy people. It also cited a Pew Research Center report that found Americans’ trust in each other has plunged over the last five decades. The Guardian also mentioned research adding to this trend, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence. It said that confidence dropped for the past five consecutive months
The Guardian also said “more of the blame is being placed on the White House than ever before,” with more than 70% of both Democrats and independents laying blame on the government for price increases – up double digits compared to February. More than half of Republicans (55%) also blamed the government, though that percentage came down 6 points since February.
Although the U.S. isn’t in a recession right now, Bloomberg recently reported that Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said there is a risk of one next year if the Federal Reserve Bank doesn’t continue lowering rates. He said rising unemployment should push the Fed to cut rates. When the bank pushes rates higher (which they did in an effort to bring down pandemic-related inflation), it makes it more expensive for consumers to borrow money.