Americans have recently been searching for jobs at the highest rate since March 2014, according to a new report on July numbers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.
It found that 28.4% of Americans were seeking a new job, up from 19.4% in July 2023.
“The increase was most pronounced among respondents older than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income less than $60,000,” said the center.
This “sharp increase” also came with a decline in satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities. Even as the average expected likelihood of receiving a job offer increased over the previous four-month period, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached a series high for the SCE Labor Market Survey.
“The labor market across the country is getting a little bit weaker. The unemployment rate has been ticking up and unfortunately, there’s signals like it’s taking much longer for people to find a job once they have been laid off,” Bloomberg reporter Alex Tanzi told Audacy station WCBS in New York this week.
Another thing that declined, according to the Fed Survey, was the average expected wage offer. Last July, the average full-time wage offer was $69,475 and this summer it is at $68,905. As that slid down year-over year, the average lowest wage respondents were willing to take actually increased – though it was lower than the series high recorded this March. This July it increased to $81,147 from $78,645 in July 2023, in March it was $81,822
Although overall 12-month inflation finally dipped below 3% in July, it still increased slightly last month, per the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank has yet to lower interest rates after raising them 11 times to battle COVID-19 pandemic-related inflation. Both of these factors have made all types of spending more expensive for Americans, from basic necessities and credit card payments to housing costs.
“Among those who were employed four months ago, 88% were still with the same employer, a series low since the start of the survey and down from 91.4% in July 2023,” said the Fed’s report. “The rate of transitioning to a different employer increased to 7.1% – the highest reading since the start of the survey – from 5.3% in July 2023. The increase compared to a year ago was primarily driven by women.”
While the expected likelihood of moving to a new employer increased to 11.6% from 10.6% in July 2023, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4% from 3.9% in July 2023. According to the report, that’s the highest reading since the series started a decade ago.
“This is surprising because the survey has been conducted, three times a year for the last 10 years. So it does include the pandemic period, and the current rate is even higher than it was shortly after the pandemic,” said Tanzi.
Along with the New York Fed’s report on job seekers, the BLS updated employment data Wednesday and with the update revealed that total nonfarm employment was less that initially thought. In fact, the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates there were 818,000 fewer nonfarm for the 12-month period ending in March of this year than previously reported. A final revision is expected next February.
Going forward, there are signs that things might improve, according to Tanzi.
“With interest rates still so high, a lot of interest rate sensitive jobs are still under pressure. Lots of jobs in real estate are under pressure. But hopefully with the Fed signaling that they might start cutting rates – that should loosen up some of those jobs,” he said.