With the 2024 Iowa Caucus set to kick off on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, top Republicans are in and around the state, making their final pushes to secure votes in the hopes of earning the GOP nominee.
Among the Republicans fighting for the nominee are former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
While the selection of the Republican nominee will happen later this year at the Republican National Convention, the Iowa Caucus serves as a crucial litmus test for who the upcoming nominee will most likely be.
Since the caucus was first held in the 70s, the voters in Iowa have helped predict the next presidential candidate almost 50% of the time.
When it comes to current polls, it looks like the former president may just run away with caucus when voters head to cast their ballot on Monday.
In the final surveys before the election, Trump boasted hefty leads in numerous polls, including a 30-point margin in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll.
The poll also shared that among Republicans in the state, Trump supporters tend to be the most enthusiastic and committed, meaning he could see a victory by an even larger margin if some decide to skip out on casting their votes because of the current winter storm and subzero temperatures hitting the state.
Among the other candidates, the poll found Haley was narrowly beating out DeSantis, who was once the closest behind Trump in the months prior to him launching his campaign.
Still, Trump’s lead over Haley, who currently sits at number two in the polls, would be the most significant margin of victory for a nonincumbent in the caucus’s history.
The previous record is a 13-point victory held by Bob Dole in 1988.
Currently, Trump has first-choice support from 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, and Haley has 20%. DeSantis is third with 16%, and Ramaswamy is fourth with 8%.
However, support for Haley comes as some within the party and independents are looking for anyone besides Trump.
The poll found that half of Haley’s supporters identify as independents (39%) and Democrats (11%) — the makeup of the poll is 69% Republicans, 23% independents and 5% Democrats among likely GOP caucusgoers.
As for who has the support of whom, Haley may overperform amongst independents, with 33% supporting her, but Trump performs well amongst Christians (51%), registered Republicans (54%), first-time caucusgoers (56%), and those who don’t have college degrees (59%). 27% of those with college degrees support Haley.
After the caucus is held, whichever candidate wins will carry heavy favor amongst the party to win the nominee. Other notable Republicans to win the caucus and then earn the nomination include Ronald Regan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush.
However, in 2016, Ted Cruz won the Iowa Caucus; in 1980, George H. W. Bush won it; and in 2012, Rick Santorum won.
In each of those instances, which saw no incumbent run, the second-place candidate, Trump, Regan, and Mitt Romney, respectively, each ended up with the nomination.
So, while the event is important in showing who has the support of the people, it is not always perfect in predicting who will be on the ballot in November.
This year’s caucus will take place on Monday, Jan. 15, at 7 p.m. CST at individual precinct locations in all of Iowa’s 99 counties.
For results from the caucus, visit the official website here.