When President Donald Trump began his tariff roller coaster, many warned that putting extra taxes on China and Mexico would drive up the cost of both cars and electronics, including smartphones, tablets, and more.
And then Trump exempted some tariffs on China. So where are we now?
A few days ago, when Trump's recripocral tariffs were announced, CNET estimated If Apple passed the China tariff costs on to customers, the iPhone 16 Pro Max could increase from $1,599 to nearly $3,600. And that's just one example.
"That kind of sticker shock would cause many of us to reconsider purchasing a new iPhone, especially amid economic uncertainty," CNET's expert wrote.
After Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other electronics from his previously imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese products. CBS News tech contributor Ian Schur joined KCBS Radio in the Bay Area for a deep dive.
Schur saw Trump's decision to back off the recriprocal tariffs on China as an acknowledgement of the reality that some of the most powerful parts of our economy are actually manufactured overseas. And that in particular, for some of the biggest companies in our stock market, including Nvidia and Apple, the majority of their manufacturing happens overseas.
Apple assembles 90% of its iPhones in China, and China also handles 80% of iPads and over half of Mac computers, according to Evercore ISI, according to NBC News.
"I think that part of the trouble you have when you paint with a broad brush with anything is that you end up finding that nuance can make a lot of difference," Schur said. "And especially over the last couple of weeks, there've been some really great stories in New York Times and Wall Street Journal about how people have been rushing out to buy iPhones because maybe they'd been waiting a couple of years and they thought, oh, I'll wait until the next one comes out in September, which is usually when they happen."
"Clearly a lot of people were anxious and so this is the first major flip-flop in terms of the specific exclusions (of electronics) But I have to imagine that it won't be the last because other industries are anxious as well."
So, what's next? While Trump backed down on his sweeping "reciprocal tariffs," he still upped the tax on goods from China to 125% and left the 10% tariff on other imports from other countries.
And though experts don't expect costs to rise on a 1-to-1 basis with tariffs on goods from China -- and other countries -- you should expect increases, CNET wrote, adding, "It's unclear, however, exactly how much of an impact the tariffs will actually have on prices. If rising prices cause demand to plummet, experts note that Apple and other producers could reduce their prices to stay competitive."
“If you want an iPhone made in the U.S. and you want it for $3,500, we should make it here,” Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC. “If you want it for $1,000, you keep it in China.”