Since President Joe Biden’s shaky performance during the first presidential debate of 2024, there have been several names floated as a potential replacement for him as the candidate. According to a new poll, only one is pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump.
That person is former First Lady Michelle Obama, wife to former President Barack Obama.
Per the Ipsos poll results released Tuesday, when asked about whether they would vote for hypothetical candidates or Trump, the first African-American first lady had 50% of the vote. Trump had just 39%. When asked who they would choose between Trump and Biden, both presumptive candidates had 40%.
“When asked whether Trump or Biden should drop out of the race following the debate, nearly three in five agree for Biden and just under half say the same about Trump,” said Ipsos.
According to her White House biography, Michelle Obama grew up in Chicago, Ill. She is a graduate of Princeton University and has a juris doctor degree from Harvard Law School. After graduating from Harvard, she went on to work at Sidley Austin law firm in Chicago, where she met her future husband.
Michelle also served as assistant commissioner of planning and development in Chicago’s City Hall before becoming the founding executive director of the Chicago chapter of Public Allies, an AmeriCorps program that prepares young people for public service. At the University of Chicago, she served as associate dean of student services and developed the university’s first community service program. Then she became the vice president of community and external affairs for the University of Chicago Medical Center. During that time, she and Barack had their two daughters, Malia and Sasha.
When she was first lady, Michelle initiated Let’s Move! a program aiming to end childhood obesity within a generation and the Reach Higher Initiative to help students understand job opportunities. She’s also authored multiple books.
“Former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical candidate to definitively defeat Trump in this poll,” said Ipsos. “Michelle Obama also tops the charts in favorability among registered voters, with Trump and Biden trailing her by more than 10 percentage points each.”
While the it looks like the former first lady would have an easier time than Biden at beating the former president in November, there is one glaring issue. She’s never indicated any interest in running.
“At this point, let’s pause to acknowledge reality: There is literally no reason whatsoever to think the former first lady will run for public office, this year or any other,” said MSNBC in a Wednesday report. “Michelle Obama has been categorical on this point on multiple occasions, across several election cycles.”
Still, the poll results indicate “there’s a broad political appetite for someone other than the former president. The challenge for Democrats is presenting those voters with a ticket they’ll be excited about,” the outlet added.
In addition to Michelle Obama, the Ipsos poll included the following potential replacements for Biden: Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Many of the complaints about Biden are related to his age (81), though he’s just a bit older than 78-year-old Trump. These candidates are all younger than the two presumptive candidates. For example, Michelle Obama is 60 and Harris is 59.
Out of the other proposed candidates, Harris polled the highest at 42% when matched up against Trump. Here’s another snag though – Trump polled higher at 43%. However, there’s been more positive momentum for the first Black, South Asian and female vice president in form of “cryptic” comments from other Democrat lawmakers and from betting markets.
First, Representative Jim Clyburn, “whose 2020 primary endorsement paved the way for Joe Biden to lock up the Democratic nomination for president,” according to The New Republic, said he would support Harris if Biden were to step aside. He told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. “I want this ticket to continue to be Biden-Harris, and then we’ll see what happens after the next election.… No. This party should not, in any way, do anything to work around Ms. Harris. We should do everything we can to bolster her whether she’s in second place or at the top of the ticket.”
Harris received another “cryptic” endorsement from Representative Summer Lee (D-Pa.), The New Republic reported Wednesday.
Forbes also reported that “betting markets believe President Joe Biden’s poor performance in last week’s presidential debate has not only severely dented his chances of beating former President Donald Trump in November’s elections, but also raised the possibility of him being replaced on the ballot by his running mate and Vice President Kamala Harris,” citing prediction platform Polymarket.
Odds that Biden would be the nominee crashed from 90% to 49% after the debate. At the same time, Harris’ odds went from 1% before the debate to 35% early Wednesday.
Candidates are typically officially selected during the Democratic National Convention, which will be held in Chicago next month.