While it may seem like the plot to a really bad made-for-TV movie, the possibility of the electoral college ending in a 269-269 tie is not that far-fetched, especially in this election.
National political correspondent Steve Kornacki, known for his election night coverage and the ability to always find the exact piece of paper he needs, broke down exactly how a tie could be possible in a recent video on social media.
Kornacki explained that if former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were to win all of the states that voted blue and red in the 2020 election, this year’s election would be decided by the seven battleground states.
These include Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
So this is how Kornacki broke down the tie scenario.
Giving Trump all the states he won in 2020, the battle in Nevada, and the states where he is polling better, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he would be at 268 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, if Harris were to win everything Joe Biden won and the remaining battleground states, she would be at 270.
While this isn’t a tie, Kornacki explained that one other piece comes into play in Nebraska, where electoral votes are given out by congressional district.
In 2020, Biden won a single vote from the state, so if Trump were to also win all three of the state’s electoral votes, the electoral college would end in a 269 to 269 tie between Harris and Trump.
Kornacki does note in the video that there are several caveats to the potential tie, being that Trump would have to win outright in Nevada and beat Harris in the one Nebraska district, where she is currently polling ahead of the Republican.
Other tie scenarios on the website 270 to Win are possible, leaving one question we have to ask.
What would happen if that doomsday scenario were to take place? Could they split the presidency for half of the term? Would they cut the country in half and have to share?
The 12th Amendment lays out that if a tie is to occur, the country would have a “contingent election,” which would see the new Congress, sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025, choose the president on Jan. 6, 2025. The Senate would then choose the vice president.
However, this wouldn’t just occur if there’s a tie. If both candidates fail to reach 270 because a third-party candidate steals electoral college votes.
Nonetheless, if this were to happen, it wouldn’t be the only time, as the first time a candidate failed to get the minimum votes needed occurred in 1800 when Thomas Jefferson faced off against John Adams.
That election saw the Electoral College work in an entirely different format, and after issues in ratifying the 1800 election, the 12th Amendment was ratified just four years later.
It was then utilized in 1824, an election that saw several Democratic-Republican candidates receive electoral college votes, but none of them hit the required amount. Despite Andrew Jackson receiving 40% of the populous vote and the most electoral votes, the House selected John Quincy Adams as the next president.