Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, defeating fellow Republican Nikki Haley 54 to 43 percent. The former president has now won each of the first two states to hold a primary or caucus ahead of the 2024 election.
While Trump is moving closer toward securing the Republican nomination, presidential historians say supporters should not celebrate yet. Jeffrey Engel, founding director of the Center for Presidential History at SMU, says Trump still would have to win the general election while also navigating criminal charges.
"I would caution him and I would caution his supporters, that's not only just half the fight of where he wants to go but a third of the fight," Engel says.
Engel contrasts the 2024 Republican race with 1980 when Ronald Reagan defeated George HW Bush.
"Ronald Reagan had largely sewn up the election pretty early, but George HW Bush stuck around. Because Reagan and Bush were always respectful to each other, Bush was able to join the Reagan ticket," he says.
Engel says the two remained "congenial" with each other, allowing the two to reconcile. He says Haley might be considered a candidate to become Trump's running mate.
"The longer Haley sticks around, I think the less likely Trump is going to be even remotely congenial," he says.
In Texas, a poll last month by the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin showed Donald Trump the favored candidate among Republican voters here. The poll showed 65% for Trump followed by 12% for Ron DeSantis and 9% for Nikki Haley.
Among those who identify as "strong Republican," 80% supported Trump, and 4% supported Haley.
Engel says Haley may stay in the race not just to try to position herself as a potential running mate but to carry the party if Trump is sidelined by criminal charges.
"It's nice to be the last person standing when the person you're running against, frankly, has all kinds of problems," Engel says. "President Trump, in addition to being the only president in American history to be impeached twice, which is not a great record to run on, is also under indictment and has all kinds of other legal problems."
The Texas Republican and Democratic primaries are scheduled March 5.
The last day to register for the primaries is February 5. Early voting runs from February 20 through March 1.
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