Well, the weather is quiet across North Texas this morning, but scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase each day through Sunday morning.
We're off to a pleasant start with temperatures hovering around 70 degrees this morning. This afternoon, highs will warm to near 90 degrees, which is right around average for this time of year. Most areas will stay dry, but there is about a 20% chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm around Dallas-Fort Worth, with slightly higher rain chances across East Texas.
As we head into Friday, another weak disturbance aloft will move closer to North Texas. That will increase rain chances to around 30% during the afternoon and evening hours, while temperatures once again top out near 90 degrees.
Saturday is the day I'm watching most closely. An upper-level disturbance currently moving through northern Mexico is expected to approach Texas. The exact track of this feature will determine how widespread our shower and thunderstorm activity becomes. At this point, I believe Saturday will be the wettest day of the forecast period. It certainly won't rain all day, but you'll want to have a plan to move outdoor activities indoors if thunderstorms develop. And if you hear thunder, head inside immediately. If you'll be spending time on area lakes or doing other outdoor recreational activities, be prepared to get off the water quickly should storms approach.
Saturday evening, a large complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the dryline roughly 250 miles west of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Those storms will move east overnight while most of us are sleeping. Historically, these storm complexes tend to weaken as they approach DFW, but some thunder and rainfall could still make it into the area early Sunday morning and perhaps wake a few of us up.
The good news is that any morning rain on Sunday should shift east fairly quickly, allowing much of the day to remain dry with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Looking ahead to next week, a warming trend is expected from Monday through Wednesday as high pressure strengthens in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The sinking air associated with this ridge will promote hotter temperatures, with highs near 90 degrees Monday, the lower 90s Tuesday, and the mid-90s by Wednesday. When humidity is factored in, it could feel close to 100 degrees during the afternoon hours.
Have a great day today, enjoy the comfortable weather while you can, and I'll keep you updated on those increasing rain chances as we head toward the weekend.
7-Day Headlines:
- DFW Airport hit 90 degrees on Isolated late day storms today
- Isolated late day storms Thursday and Friday
- More widespread storms Saturday into Sunday morning
- Near average temperatures though Sunday
- Drying out and heating up next week
- Mosquitoes and humidity dominate
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Almanac:
- Yest Rain: 0.00”; Yest High: 90; Low: 69
- Today’s Averages: High: 89; Low: 70
- Record high: 99 (1977); Record low 54 (1919, 1954)
- June rain: 2.31”; Surplus: 1.91”
- 2026 Rain: 15.49”; Snow: 2.4” Deficit: <1.50”>
- Sunrise: 6:20am; Sunset: 8:34pm
Forecast:
Thursday: Partly cloudy and warm. Isolated late day showers and storms. Highest coverage east of Dallas. High: Near 90. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy and humid. Low: Low 70s. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy, warm and muggy. Scattered afternoon and evening storms. High: Upper 80s. WInd: SE 5-10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and strong storms. High: Mid 80s.
Sunday: Morning showers and thunderstorms, becoming partly cloudy, warm and humid. High: Near Upper 80s.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. High: Near 90.
Tuesday: Sunny and warm. High: Low 90s.
Wednesday: Sunny, a bit warmer. High: Mid 90s.
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