Buffalo, NY (WBEN) Winter is coming, but what will WNY's winter outlook be like?
"The big weather maker is going to be the phenomenon of La Nina, which is forming right now in the Pacific Ocean," says National Weather Service meteorologist David Thomas. He says temperatures are likely to be slightly above normal. "The month of February is where we could see temperatures greater than normal," notes Thomas.
WBEN 7 First Alert Meteorologist Andy Parker says La Nina will mean an active weather pattern across the Great Lakes. "In La Nina years, we typically see an uptick in precipitation, and in the early months, that's when we can see a larger than normal accumulation. Later in the winter, those storms become less impactful on a smaller scale, and if the lake is frozen, lake effect is a smaller player. Either way, it's a year where we're expecting more snow and precipitation than normal," says Parker.
Thomas says there have been an increased number in lake effect events in La Nina seasons. "There are other circulations that help drag the amount of rainfall and snowfall that will occur, and looking at past La Ninas, there's an equal chance of below or above average snowfall, but the needle has dragged toward above average," notes Thomas.
Parker says the 2010s decade saw winters have become extremely erratic. "We've set seven top 10 records this decade, that's the most ever set. We've also see the warmest and coldest months in Buffalo history," says Parker. "Winter months have been switching Jekyll and Hyde, and there hasn't been an identity. This past decade, the winter identity has been changing."
