With more than two decades of experience studying the unique weather patterns in North Texas, KRLD Chief Meteorologist Dan Brounoff says forecasting winter weather in the region is complex. He has come to relish the challenge.
"Winter is my favorite time to forecast because of the challenge," he said.
One of the most significant challenges Brounoff faces is the variability in precipitation types caused by minor temperature fluctuations.
"It's a difference between one or two degrees precip type," he said. These nuances make it essential to consider more than just surface temperatures.
"There could be a warm layer above that changes the precip type," he said.
In addition to temperature variations, the trajectory of incoming storms plays a critical role.
"The track of the storm that's still two days away from coming through here," Brounoff said, is a key factor in determining potential snowfall or icy conditions.
This makes providing early and accurate forecasts particularly challenging.
"Everybody wants totals now," he said.
As for this week, North Texas residents can expect significant wintry weather, especially in the northern half of DFW.
"We will see some significant wintery weather around here, in areas north of Interstate 30," Brounoff predicted.
He noted that higher snow totals are expected closer to the Red River, while areas further south will see lighter amounts.
Comparing this week's storm to 2021
For those who endured the brutal winter storm of February 2021, Brounoff offers a comparison.
"There are two things that stand out: One is the length of the cold that we had back then," he recalls. "And we had two or three bouts of wintry precipitation."
In 2021, North Texas experienced more than 10 days of relentless cold, with temperatures dipping into the single digits and, at times, below zero. That prolonged cold spell, combined with multiple rounds of winter weather, played a critical role in crippling the state's power grid.
While this week's storm may bring heavier snow totals, Brounoff assures residents it won't be as harsh as the 2021 event.
"Not as cold with this system, but maybe heavier totals," he said.
Fortunately, the snow won't linger for long, as warmer temperatures are expected to return quickly for the weekend.
Lastly, Brounoff stressed the importance of preparation and staying informed. With unpredictable variables and the potential for rapid changes, staying updated on weather forecasts and advisories is essential.
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