PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — A worst-case forecast shows New Jersey eclipsing its April peak of hospitalizations if residents don't tighten-up mask wearing and social distancing over the holidays.
Models developed by the New Jersey Department of Health and the governor's innovation office each show worst-case and moderate predictions.
The Health Department's worst-case scenario assumes that if residents do not change their behavior and celebrate the holidays as they usually would, the state would see 12,595 new COVID-19 cases a day by mid-January and 8,747 people hospitalized. That would top the April high-water mark of 8,270 hospitalizations.
The moderate model, assuming more mask-wearing and social distancing, predicts that new daily cases would top out at 9,120, with hospitalizations peaking at 6,333.
For comparison, there are currently 3,533 people being treated for COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals.
"What these two models both show us is that under this scenario we are in for weeks of significantly increasing cases," said Gov. Phil Murphy at his regular coronavirus briefing.
Murphy said the difference between the two scenarios is people accepting personal responsibility.
"If we do that, we will have put ourselves into a more promising position for when a vaccine becomes widely available in the spring. And that means we can envision lifting restrictions that much sooner," Murphy said.
But Murphy warned that if hospitals begin to get overwhelmed, he would consider reimposing statewide restrictions.
Murphy reported an additional 4,665 new cases Wednesday. New Jersey had 91 more deaths, bringing the state's cumulative death toll to 15,674.
