It seems like Bill Belichick is going to wait for his man — even if it takes another year. With the 49ers confirming they’re going to select a quarterback at No. 3 overall, it seems inevitable that Jimmy Garoppolo will eventually be available.
Signs point to Belichick holding out until that happens.
On Monday, Kyle Shanahan addressed Garoppolo’s status with a heavy dose of nihilism, pontificating the purpose behind thinking about the future at all. “I can’t guarantee that anybody in the world will be alive on Sunday, so I can’t guarantee who will be on our roster on Sunday,” he said.
Noted. Why are we here, anyway?
We knew the Niners were going to pick a quarterback at No. 3 from the moment they surrendered three first-round picks to move up nine spots. Though Shanahan apparently can’t guarantee whether any players will be on his roster next season, if we do happen to be alive, he says there will be a new QB.
“We’re going to add a quarterback to our team,” he said. “I think the way our years have gone in the past few years, especially when Jimmy’s gotten hurt, I think our fan base agrees with that and [would] be happy we’re going to solve that problem.”
Garoppolo missed 10 games last season, playing in just 25 regular season contests over the last three years. Over that span, he’s consumed nearly $84 million in cap space. It’s understandable why the 49ers want an insurance policy, and eventually, a successor.
San Francisco structured Garoppolo’s contract in a way that allows them to easily move on. His dead cap hit is just $2.8 million. Next year, it shrinks to $1.4 million. Garoppolo’s actual cap hits for the next two seasons are $26.3 million and $27 million, respectively.
In other words, Garoppolo’s contract is designed for him to be traded. Peter King reports he could be “more available than he’s been” around the NFL Draft.
That brings us to Belichick. While there’s emerging groupthink among NFL Insiders about the Patriots trading up for a quarterback, that would still go against everything Belichick has ever done. As the Globe’s Ben Volin points out, Belichick has only been part of one team in his 46-year NFL coaching career that’s taken a quarterback in the first round: The 1979 Giants selected Phil Simms at No. 7 overall.
Todd McShay pushed back against the growing consensus Monday, saying he hears it’s more likely the Patriots will trade back than up. That sounds like the Bill we know. Future third-round picks are his favorite — besides Jimmy G, that is.
Belichick never wanted to trade Garoppolo, only dealing him after pressure from Robert Kraft, according to the highly cited Seth Wickersham expose that turned out to be exactly right. Curiously, Belichick only called the Niners about Garoppolo’s availability. He didn’t shop around.
Belichick is acting like someone who knows his first choice will eventually fall back into his arms. Why else spend $175 million guaranteed in free agency and neglect the most important position? Cam Newton coming back on another discounted one-year deal is the definition of a stopgap — or perfect value for a backup.
Maybe the Niners will move on from Garoppolo this weekend. After all, 11 of the 12 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last year have started at least seven games in their rookie seasons. The days of redshirting guys are long gone.
But then again, San Francisco’s QB depth chart is pretty weak. C.J. Beathard signed with Jacksonville and Nick Mullens is a free agent. It would be pretty bold for Shanahan to entrust his offense to Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance with Nate Sudfeld and Josh Rosen as the fallback options.
It makes more sense for the Niners to begin the year with Garoppolo and the new QB de jour. With Garoppolo’s injury history, the kid may not be sitting for long — as Shanahan insinuated.
That would truly make Garoppolo expendable, putting Belichick in prime position to welcome his boy home. Due to Garoppolo's salary, it would probably only cost a second- or third-round pick, too.
Value and Jimmy G. That's Belichick heaven.
