Pop quiz: When did the Bruins play their best hockey of this season? It’s not a trick question. It was clearly the three-week stretch coming out of the December COVID pause when they went 10-2-0.
They hadn’t been able to string that many good games together prior to the pause, and they haven’t been able to keep up that pace over the last month (Monday's impressive win over the Colorado Avalanche notwithstanding).
So, what did the Bruins do during that stretch that was different from the rest of the season? They scored more goals. At the risk of over-simplifying, it... kind of is that simple. They averaged 4.00 goals per game during those 12 games, more than a goal per game better than their season average of 2.88. They scored three or more goals in all 10 of those wins.
Hold on, you’re thinking. Surely the defense and goaltending were also better during that stretch, right? Well, not really. The Bruins gave up 2.75 goals per game during that 10-2-0 stretch, right in line with their season average of 2.74. They did give up slightly fewer shots and chances, but their goaltending dropped off (just to cite one stat, their 5-on-5 save percentage was .888 during that stretch compared to .914 for the season). There was a five-goal stinker from Tuukka Rask in there that throws the numbers off, but Linus Ullmark’s .900 save percentage in eight games wasn’t particularly great either.
What’s the point of all this? To set up this argument: The area where the Bruins have the most room for improvement is on offense, not defense. The most straightforward path back to winning like they were in January is offensive improvement. Therefore, Don Sweeney’s priority before the NHL’s March 21 trade deadline should be offense rather than defense.
That’s not to say that the Bruins couldn’t use another defenseman, or shouldn’t make a deal for one if there’s a good deal to be made. They could, and they should.
But between the offense, defense and goaltending, the Bruins’ defense has, statistically, actually been the most consistent of the three. On a per-60-minute basis, the Bruins currently rank first in 5-on-5 shot attempts against, second in shots on goal against, first in expected goals against, first in scoring chances against, and first in high-danger chances against. If you break the season into pre-January hot streak, January hot streak, and post-January hot streak, they’re in the top five in nearly all of those categories for each split.
They’re sixth in total goals against per game. The difference between their expected goals against and actual goals against used to be wider, but it’s started to close as their goaltending has improved courtesy of Jeremy Swayman’s strong play recently.
Sure, the Bruins’ defense makes mistakes. They have bad games. So does every other defense in the NHL. We tend to notice mistakes more when they end up in the back of the net. And not to pick on Ullmark, but of the 63 goalies who have played the most minutes this season, he currently ranks 56th in high-danger save percentage. Teams need their goalie to pick them up on some of those mistakes, and that’s what the Bruins are now getting from Swayman, who has climbed up to ninth in high-danger save percentage.
It’s a reality that Bruce Cassidy acknowledged on Monday when asked about his team’s defensive analytics.
“The expected [goals] is analytics, so it’s not the whole story. But you have to put some value in it, because it does tell some of the story of how you’re playing the game, style of play,” Cassidy said. “So we do look at that, and obviously watch our scoring chances. Are we generating more than the other team? If so, are they good ones? Are they average ones?
“There’s kind of those grades, A, B and C. If you’re a team that doesn’t give up a lot, but gives up all grade-A’s, then it’s tough to put it all on your goaltenders. I don’t think we fall into that category. … At the end of the day, I think our goalies have been better and are starting to get those numbers aligned in terms of where our actual goals against is and sort of what we’re expected to give up, or are giving up. And you need that.”
Cassidy had called out his defense (and the rest of his team) for needing to be “more like pricks” on Saturday, but took a step back and was more complimentary of them Monday.
“We are one of the better defensive teams in the league, and that shouldn’t be overlooked with our D corps,” he said. “They value that part of the game. First and foremost, they’re good defenders. They care. They don’t want to put the team in bad spots by making high-risk plays, bad decisions pinching. Our PK’s been solid. So first and foremost, they’ve taken care of business there. … As for the bite in their game, I think that’s a team thing. It wasn’t just the D. It’s in general.”
Any trade for a defenseman would likely be to add either more physicality or more offense to the blue line (the latter of which serves our end goal here anyways). It would be great to get a player who can do both, but good luck finding that for a remotely reasonable price. It wouldn’t be to tangibly impact the quantity or quality of chances the Bruins are giving up, because there’s only so much you can improve on what the Bruins are already doing there.
Where there is clearly room to improve is in the goal-scoring department. The Bruins showed in January that they at least have the potential to be a good offense. They scored more goals during that stretch, but they also created better chances. Their 5-on-5 scoring chances per 60 minutes jumped from their season average of 27.8 up to 32.2, and their high-danger chances went from 10.66 per 60 to 12.61. Their 5-on-5 shooting percentage improved from 6.66% (worst in the NHL) to 9.79% (a mark that would be good for second in the league).
They’ve had trouble getting to or staying at those levels on any sort of consistent basis, though. They rank 19th in total goals per game on the season and 19th in 5-on-5 offense. Adding a player who can create and finish off chances would help them do that, and there are obvious spots in the lineup that player could fit.
We know second-line center has been a question since David Krejci left. While Erik Haula has done an admirable job centering Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak, it’s still a spot the Bruins may need to upgrade for the playoffs. A scoring right wing would be welcome as well; the fact that we’re currently debating which bottom-six or AHL forward should play next to Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand so Craig Smith can stay on the third line and Pastrnak can stay with Hall should make that clear.
Combine an improved offense, improved goaltending courtesy of Swayman, and a defense that continues to limit chances (whether they’re “pricks” or not), and you just might end up with a team worth getting excited about.
All stats from NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick or Evolving-Hockey, unless otherwise noted.
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