The 6 Rings Postgame Show: Mike Kadlick and Christian Fauria join the show following Sunday's loss to the Chargers
The beginning of the Patriots' 2023 NFL season was met with high hopes, the idea of a 'fresh start', and a rejuvenated quarterback in Mac Jones.
Instead, after 14 weeks New England is 2-10, Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe, their chances at postseason play are all but zero, and we're already looking ahead to the 2024 season just 4 days into December.
And now it's time for a mailbag.
A reminder: to stay involved, be sure to keep an eye out for the thread on Twitter @mikekadlick and @WEEI. Don't have Twitter? Email me at michael.kadlick@audacy.com to submit any questions you may have.
Here we goooooo:
Q: What is the biggest re-signing the Patriots need to make? Who or what is the biggest need in free agency?
A: Before we get into potential coaching changes and NFL Draft talk, let's take a look at the current roster.
Heading into 2024, the Patriots are expected to have an effective cap space of over $76 million, the third highest in the NFL behind only the Titans and the Colts.
In turn, they also have plenty of roster holes. They don't have a tight end under contract beyond this season, their wide receiver room (while full) is frankly not that talented, and their top offensive tackle in Trent Brown is all but set to hit the market.
The two most important players New England should focus on retaining are tight end Hunter Henry and safety Kyle Dugger.
Henry, with a 2023 cap number of $15.5 million, is one of the top-paid tight ends in the game but isn't playing like one. His market should dip when he hits free agency this offseason, and his stance as a captain and his role as a leader should surely be valued.
As for Dugger, it's pretty simple. The fourth-year player will likely command top-of-the-market money when he hits free agency this Spring and, as Bill Belichick said on WEEI's The Greg Hill Show on Monday, he's one of the best safeties in the league.
So pay him like one. The Patriots are deprived of talent and have the cap space. There's no sense in not backing up the Brinks truck for one of your best players.
Q: What's the free agent outlook at offensive line like?
A: I'm going to skip getting into the Justin Fields question, but yes the Darnold trade (a second, fourth, and sixth-rounder) could be comparable.
As for the free agent class coming up at tackle? It's pretty bleak. Names include Tyron Smith, Andrus Peat, Duane Brown, and the Patriots' own Trent Brown - all of whom are over 30 years old.
One interesting target could be Jonah Williams. The 26-year-old Bengals tackle was drafted in the first round in 2019, and after requesting a trade following Cincinnati's acquisition of Orlando Brown Jr., decided to stay with the team and switched from left to right tackle. He's played well following the change and could command a decent market this offseason.
Q: If the Patriots finish with the No. 2 pick, and both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are on the board, who should they select?
A: Alright time for the good stuff. With the Cardinals' 24-10 win over the Steelers on Sunday, the Patriots would hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if the season ended today.
This, of course, would put them in prime position to select one of the two top prospects in this year's class in quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
While the consensus is that Williams is the No. 1 prospect in this class and could very likely go first overall, the Bears potentially having the pick makes it interesting. Just three years ago, they selected quarterback Justin Fields and could continue on with him should be succeed over Chicago's next five games.
So, in theory, they could have their pick of either Williams or North Carolina signal-caller Drake Maye. If this is the case, I think the decision is easy.
Take Caleb Williams. He's more athletic, a more dynamic playmaker, and has slightly better arm talent. You'd be remiss to not take the best player on the board.
Q: Is there a chance they could trade up to No. 1 to draft Caleb Williams?
A: Is there a chance? Sure, but the answer really lies within the Patriots scouting department.
If New England likes him that much more than Drake Maye as a prospect, then he's absolutely worth trading up for. Any player, in my opinion, that you like that much above another, especially at the quarterback position, is one you have to go get.
Q: What would it cost to trade up to the No. 1 pick?
A: So what would it cost?
Most of the time, when moving up towards the top of the draft, teams, at a minimum, have to give up their first-round pick in the following year's draft and then some. When the Panthers moved up from No. 9 to No. 1 last offseason, they sent their 2023 first-round pick (No. 9), their 2023 second-round pick, their 2024 first-round pick, their 2025 second-roun d pick, and WR D.J. Moore to Chicago. A haul.
In the Patriots' circumstance, of course, they'd only be moving up one spot, from No. 2 to No. 1. For a better comparison, let's look at the 2017 Draft when the Bears traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 to select quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Chicago sent their first-round pick (No. 3), their second-round pick, their fourth-round pick, and their third-round in the following year pick to San Francisco to move up just one spot.
Long story short? If they like Williams that much, they should do it, but it'll cost them.
Q: What are the odds of 1 - Bill Belichick, 2 - Jerod Mayo, or 3 - an external candidate being the head coach of the Patriots next season?
A: All of these draft questions, of course, will hinge on what the Patriots do at head coach and in their front office.
We'll make this one short and sweet. Here's what I think the chances are of the three choices above:
55% - External candidate
35% - Jerod Mayo
10% - Bill Belichick
Q: Is Kraft more likely to give us a Mayo/Bill O'Brien combo next year rather than going outside the family? Would he hire a GM as well?
A: While I answered this above, with a 55% to 35% chance that the head coach next season will come from outside the organization, I wanted to touch on the general manager aspect of this as well.
If the Patriots decide to stay in-house and hire Jerod Mayo, Bill O'Brien, or any current staffer, then it may make sense for them to stay in-house in the front office as well. If that is the case, then a promotion for Matt Groh (their current director of player personnel) to general manager would make the most sense.
If they make an outside hire, whether it be Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Eric Bienemy, or anyone else not currently employed in Foxborough, then it would make sense to clear out the front office and start anew there as well. Some name to potentially keep an eye on?
- Adam Peters, 49ers asst. general manager
- Mike Borgonzi, Chiefs asst. general manager
- Thomas Dimitroff, former Falcons general manager
- Anyone who works under Eagles GM Howie Roseman
Either way, I find it hard to believe they'll give their next head coach full control of personnel like the did with Belichick, given how it ended this time around.
Q: Could the door be open to a Josh McDaniels return to the Patriots in 2024?
A: The short answer? Yes, I believe there's a chance Josh McDaniels could return to the Patriots in 2024.
The long answer? Yes, because I believe that wherever Belichick is coaching in 2024, he'll have Josh McDaniels with him as his offensive coordinator.
Say what you will about McDaniels as a head coach, but the guy knows how to coach an offense. Remember the Mac Jones we always call back to from his rookie season? The one that made a Pro Bowl and he's brutally regressed from since? Well his play caller was McDaniels, and Jones has done nothing but get worse since he left for Las Vegas.
If Bill is back in New England in 2024, I think McDaniels will be here in some capacity. If he goes elsewhere, say, to the Los Angeles Chargers, I think McDaniels will go with him and thrive with Justin Herbert at quarterback.
Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @WEEI for the latest up-to-date Patriots and Boston sports news!
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