“The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history,” Bill Gates wrote in the first line of a blog post he published this week.
After predicting just a few years ago that we would all soon have personal robots, Gates is now ringing alarm bells about the fast-paced development of artificial intelligence. He’s worried about how it will impact our economy, our social skills, our critical thinking skills and more.
Poll after poll shows that most of the American public shares at least some of these concerns.
The Economist/YouGov polling from May found that more Americans are pessimistic than optimistic about AI’s long-term effects, with young adults “more likely to worry that AI will replace jobs they depend upon,” even as they think the tech will eventually benefit most people. Gallup polling results released in July found that “Americans’ previously improving attitudes toward AI have lost momentum,” as they learn more about the technology and that they are worried about it reducing jobs.
This month, the Pew Research Center released data that showed 52% of Americans say they are more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life, compared to 37% in 2021. Research from Stanford University shows that there is a significant gap between the public’s view of AI and the view of experts in the field, with 73% of experts expecting a positive impact compared to just 23% of the public.
Gates, a tech pioneer who made billions as the co-founder of Microsoft, has his own horses in the AI race, as he noted in his blog post. However, he sees real problems ahead if the AI story continues on the path its currently on.
“Right now, we are not preparing adequately for that transition,” he said. “If the world takes the right steps, AI will be a force for good and leave everyone better off.”
In the best-case scenario, he said AI could become the “greatest equalizer ever invented,” or it could become “the worst source of injustice.” There are questions about safety and equity related to the technology that must be addressed as soon as possible, he added.
“I believe that answering these questions and acting on the answers should be the world’s top priority,” Gates stressed. “If the world takes the right steps AI will be a force for good and leave everyone better off.”
He highlighted many risks associated with AI in the post. First, he believes that people don’t understand how quickly the impacts of AI will come tumbling in – it is moving faster than our embrace of computers and other types of automation in the past. There’s also the impact of AI tools like chatbots on mental health, particularly for young users who might lean into these tools instead of experiencing the real risks and rewards of life.
“When I was growing up in Seattle, I didn’t have that many friends aside from a few other boys who were like me. It took hard work and a lot of help from my mom to develop my social skills so I could relate to different kinds of people. I still draw on those lessons today at the age of 70,” said Gates. “I doubt I would have put in the same work if I had had an AI companion back then.”
Research has shown that AI can serve to make students “dumber” in some classroom applications, and Gates shared concerns about how a reliance on AI could weaken critical thinking skills. Still, he thinks there are opportunities to responsibly use AI in education.
There are also concerns about data centers’ impact on the environment, AI-powered fraud, cyber-attacks, AI opening up new avenues for biowarfare and more.
One of the most pressing concerns about AI is its impact on the economy. Gates agreed that it is poised to decimate jobs throughout various fields, including white-collar work and blue-collar work with the continued development of robots that run on AI. Some of this has already been seen, especially when it comes to entry-level positions. Tech giant Meta has even been sued for allegedly using AI to fire human employees.
“I’m especially worried about young people, who will enter a workforce with fewer entry-level openings. They understand the challenge because they are the most active users of AI and see both the capabilities and the rate of improvement. It’s no wonder that so many of them feel negatively about AI,” said Gates.
Loss of jobs is a big deal in a capitalist society like ours, Gates explained. Not only does it effect people’s ability to care and support themselves, it takes away dignity and social opportunities.
“When a community has high unemployment, the ripple effects can be pervasive,” he said. “Research suggests that in some parts of the United States, factory closures contribute to a rise in deaths from opioid overdoses. Now imagine similar pressures on both white-collar and blue-collar workers nationwide.”
Gates has some ideas for how to welcome the age of AI while protecting jobs and equity. One of them is called “Humans Reserved” – a proposal to set aside some roles for only humans to do.
“I like the phrase Human Reserved because it makes me think of nature reserves – places where we could put buildings and roads, but we choose not to because the loss would be too great,” said Gates. He did acknowledge that the idea raises questions that he doesn’t have answers to yet, such as how to decide which roles get preserved, what criteria to use and more.
Since AI and robots are expected to take on roles now filled by humans, another proposal from Gates is to tax them more like humans.
“I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings,” Gates said. “But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines.”
He added: “A tax would slow the rush away from human labor a little and raise money for retraining and a stronger safety net. It would need to be targeted so it does not slow down the purely beneficial uses of AI, like making medicine and education cheaper.”
While Gates said critics of this idea “point out that it’s not optimally efficient in an economic sense,” he argues that they aren’t “considering the broader value of work for individuals and society.”
Going forward, Gates said we can’t leave AI companies to create solutions to the issues raised by this tech. Governments, charity groups, community groups and religious organizations should all play a role in how we integrate it into our lives through democratic processes, he recommended.
“I was fascinated by Pope Leo XIV’s encyclical on AI, ‘On Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence.’ It lays a strong foundation for the work that needs to be done,” Gates said.
While the pope’s approach is a step in the right direction, Gates said he isn’t seeing the same effort overall.
“Unfortunately, right now we are not preparing for it,” he said of the transition to AI. “I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era.”
Now is the time to act if we want to fully realize the positive force AI could be, he said.
