Presidential Donald Trump has dominated presidential election conversations for more than a decade. In the upcoming election, his term will be up. Who are the power players that be talking about leading up to November 2028?
New Harvard/Harris poll results released this week provide a preview of who might be in the race. This survey was conducted online in the U.S. from Aug. 28 to Aug. 30 among 2,100 registered voters.
On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris – who lost the 2024 election to Trump after replacing former President Joe Biden and running one of the shortest presidential campaigns in history – was the top contender at 42%. She was followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 18%, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) at 9%, Sen. John Ossoff (D-Ga.) at 7%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7% and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker at 4%.
Harvard/Harris noted that Harris has gained popularity, while Newsom and Shapiro have fallen in popularity. In general, the results roughly mirror former polling cited by Audacy this summer.
However, they don’t mirror what’s happening in betting markets. As of Saturday, Kalshi had Ocasio-Cortez (also known as AOC) in the top spot with 17%, followed by Ossoff with 17% and Newsom at 15%. Polymarket also showed AOC in the lead to be the Democratic nominee with 20%, followed by Ossoff at 16% and Newsom at 15%.
AOC is one of the most well-known faces of Democratic Socialism in the U.S., a progressive faction of the left that has been getting buzz ahead of the midterm elections as Americans deal with mounting economic pressure. In AOC’s home state of New York, fellow Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani also recently ran a successful mayoral campaign.
On the Republican side, the new Harvard/Harris polling showed Vice President JD Vance in the top spot with 44%. He was followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, Donald Trump Jr. at 18%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7%, “someone else” at 3%, Tucker Carlson at 3% and Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, at 3%.
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 20: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris stands with Vice President-elect, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) ahead of Inauguration ceremonies, at the White House on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Donald Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the United States.Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty ImagesVance has maintained a steady lead as the expected 2028 GOP candidate in previous polls. Kalshi also ranked him as the top contender at 46%, Saturday followed by Rubio at 21% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 4.5%. Polymarket had Vance in the top spot with more than 50%, followed by Rubio at 19.6% and Carlson at 3.1%.
When it came to the overall presidential election, both Kalshi and Polymarket had Vance in the top spot Saturday at 23% and 25% respectively. Kalshi showed Ossoff as a distant second at 12% and Rubio in third at 11%. Polymarket favored AOC in second with 13% and Ossoff in third with 12%.
