Predicting next COVID surge is matter of 'when' not 'if', health expert warns

A woman wearing a protective mask is seen in Union Square on March 9, 2020 in New York City.
A woman wearing a protective mask is seen in Union Square on March 9, 2020 in New York City. Photo credit Getty Images

SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – Just as we thought we'd finally gotten over the hump of the recent COVID-19 surge, New York health officials are reporting a spike of coronavirus fueled by another omicron subvariant — BA.5.

Dr. Dean Blumberg, UC Davis Health infectious disease specialist, told KCBS Radio's "Ask An Expert" it's no longer a matter of "if," but "when."

"I think we will see another surge," he predicted. "The current uptick in cases in California appears to have leveled off. We're hoping in the summer we’ll have relatively low rates of transmission with the model suggesting that there will be an increase starting in September or so."

Health experts say that the BA subvariant strains may be the worst versions of the omicron variant.

"BA.4 and BA.5 both have mutations that appear to allow the virus to bind more strongly to our cellular receptors and to evade previous immunity that we may have developed from infection or from vaccination, so for that reason they are becoming the dominant variants that are circulating in the U.S.," Blumberg explained.

Last week, the subvariants accounted for 52% of circulating strains. According to Blumberg, there is no data to prove that the subvariants cause more severe disease or a higher risk for long-COVID compared to previous strains, they just appear to cause more breakthrough infections.

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Featured Image Photo Credit: Getty Images