March Madness is known for a lot of things but nothing draws people in like the big upsets. Lesser known teams beating the power schools is what makes the NCAA Tournament great.
When it comes to betting odds, there are always teams undervalued in the market for one reason or another. And while covering the spread is important to bettors, so is hitting a couple of big underdogs winning outright on the moneyline.
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, give their favorite upset picks for the first-round of the NCAA Tournament with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
No. 13 Ohio Bobcats (+7.5, +280) vs. No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers
I already have a bet on Bobcats +8.5, but I’ll be sprinkling a little on the moneyline as well. Ohio point guard Jason Preston, who’s racked up the 10th-highest assist rate in college basketball, will be the key to speeding up the tempo and making Virginia operate at an even more efficient rate — given its slow pace. Preston should dominate the Cavaliers’ Kihei Clark in the halfcourt, too.
With Preston leading the way, Ohio boasts the 56th-highest 3-point clip (36.6%) in the country, and its perimeter attack is critical against Virginia’s pack-line defense that crams the paint.
No matter who ends up suiting up for Tony Bennett’s team because of its COVID situation, one day of practice in Indianapolis shouldn’t produce much confidence in the favorite. Ohio is a live dog.
No. 12 UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (+7.5, +280) vs. No. 5 Creighton
Similar to Ohio, I bet the Gauchos at +7.5, and I’ll also add a little bit on the moneyline.
In order to pull off an upset in the dance, the underdog typically needs to disrupt the opponents’ style of play. With UCSB’s size edge, Joe Pasternack’s team should be able to control the glass and slow down the tempo — which isn’t Creighton’s preferred pace. The Gauchos even present a top-50 opponent's 3-point scoring rate, and their perimeter defense will give the Bluejays’ shooters fits around the arc.
Creighton’s defense isn’t going to get gashed like in seasons past, but the 6-foot-4 Jaquori McLaughlin (43rd-highest assist rate) can dominate a game in the halfcourt. With Amadou Sow and high-major transfer (Oregon) Miles Norris (9.6 points per game) down low, USCB is filled with the components to score efficiently at the rim.
Gauchos guard Ajare Sanni (ankle) -- the Big West sixth man of the year -- is day-to-day after suffering the injury in the conference title game on Saturday. Even if he were to miss the Round of 64, he isn't a major contributor for them defensively.
This matchup reminds me of Murray State’s upset win over Marquette in 2019, as the Golden Eagles’ perimeter-oriented attack ran into an elite 3-point defense and a dominant guard in Ja Morant. Expect a similar result in Indianapolis.
Casale
No. 13 Ohio Bobcats (+7.5, +280) vs. No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers
Ohio is my top upset pick in the NCAA Tournament. I hit the Bobcats +8.5 and +320 on the moneyline shortly after the line came out, but would play Ohio down to +7. Given all of Virginia's issues, the Bobcats have a good chance to win this game outright.
The Cavaliers were forced to withdraw from the ACC Tournament because of COVID issues. They are expected to arrive in Indianapolis a day before the game with most of the team in quarantine until Thursday. That's not ideal in any situation, but the committee did Virginia no favors by matching them up with one of the most talented lower seeds in the tournament.
Ohio has a star in guard Jason Preston (16.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 7.2 apg). Preston's ability to create and drive into the lane will cause problems for Virginia's pack line defense. The Bobcats ranked second in the MAC in effective field goal percentage at 54.5%. It's just a bad draw for a Virginia team likely to be rusty after the COVID layoff. Ohio is one of the few mid-majors that has the offensive firepower to make UVA play at a faster pace than it likes.
I not only have Ohio taking this game but also defeating the winner of Creighton/UC-Santa Barbara to advance to the Sweet 16. Give me the Bobcats at +280 on the moneyline all day.
No. 12 Winthrop Eagles (+6.5, +240) vs. No. 5 Villanova Wildcats
Winthrop is the sexy first-round upset pick. Normally, I try to stay away from the big public dog, but the Eagles got the perfect opponent in the limping Villanova Wildcats to pull off a stunner.
I was looking to fade the Wildcats even before star guard Collin Gillespie was lost for the season with a knee injury. Guard Justin Moore's status is also up in the air after he suffered an ankle injury in the regular season finale versus Providence.
The problem with this year's Villanova team is defense. They don't play any. The Wildcats rank 246th in effective field goal percentage and 248th defending the three. Not great.
Winthrop enters 23-1 after piling up wins over weak competition. The Eagles most impressive win of the season was in the opener over UNC Greensboro. Is the bandwagon too big for this team? Probably, but I do like the way they match up with Villanova.
Winthrop wants to play fast (11th in pace) and is a top-100 3-point shooting team. If the Eagles can hit some shots early and force Villanova out of its snail-like pace, they have a shot to pull the outright upset.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.