We are just one event away from the Masters! As for wagering this week, we shift our sights onto TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course for the Valero Texas Open. The course measures at 7,435-yard, par-72. Tony Finau comes in as the betting favorite at +1100. Corey Conners is the defending champion, since he won this event the last time it was held in 2019.
Per Rick Gehman, the two most correlated stats that could potentially lead to success at this event are Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Driving Accuracy. That makes sense, with the course having 64 bunkers.
Betting on golf always seems to come down to the wire, which is why I’ve become hooked. So let’s dig in and see if we can keep it rolling.
When it comes to my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data (RickRunGood.com database), I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event.
Let’s dig in!
2021 Valero Texas Open
Dates: April 1-4
Course: TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, San Antonio, Texas
Watch: GOLF/ NBC
Picks to win outright
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Matsuyama ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 32nd in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. In fact, mostly all his Strokes Gained by Round numbers in 2021 are terrific, except for his putting.
I know Matsuyama hasn't played this event before, but he looked like he flipped a switch during Match Play. If he can just get his putting going this weekend, this bet presents value at 18-1.
On a side note, the RickRun Tournament Predictor loves Matsuyama this week, with the simulations projecting him to win 10.70% of the time. Guys that usually finish in the top-5 of the model tend to fare well in these events.
Longshots
I’m looking for guys who are 25-1 or longer for this section. If any of them are in the mix come Sunday, I will usually live bet and hedge a little pizza money to make sure I come out on top.
Ryan Palmer +2500
Palmer has had success at this event in the past, finishing in the top-6 three straight times from 2015-2017. He's also playing well and trending upwards, with three top-5 finishes since last October. The perfect combination to breakthrough.
Charley Hoffman +3300
His course history here is second to none. Hoffman won the event in 2016. On top of that, he's made 14 straight cuts, which is the number of times he's played this event. If that wasn't enough, out of those 14 appearances, Hoffman has finished top-13 or better 11 times. Here's the kicker, the last time they played this event in 2019, Hoffman was the runner-up.
Now, if those results don't get you excited, how about some motivation? Hoffman's only way to get into the Masters field next week is to win this week's event.
Because of all those factors, at 33-1, I couldn't resist.
Brendan Steele +4100
Love Steele this week. He is playing great golf this year with two top-4 finishes and eight consecutive cuts made. He also has great course history here, since he’s won this event before and has had two more top-10s since.
Steele also ranks well in the two stats to look for at this course: 48th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 49th in Driving Accuracy percentage.
At these odds, this is one of my favorite bets of the event.
Akshay Bhatia +25000
Complete dart throw, there is some method behind the madness. I loved what I saw from the youngster at Pebble Beach. Not a large sample set yet, but his Total Strokes Gained numbers in 2021 have been fire. At these odds, I have to take a chance.
Two more longshots worth a sprinkle are John Huh (+7000) and Doug Ghim (+8000). Huh has the strong iron play to contend. Ghim has been playing very well and his SG metrics are solid.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook