After taking a year off, March Madness is back! The field of 68 is set, and it's time to talk Final Four picks and sleepers to win their region.
The favorites in the betting market to win the 2021 NCAA College Basketball Championship at BetMGM are Gonzaga (+200), Baylor (+500), Illinois (+600), and Michigan (+700). Those teams also happen to be the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. But, are the favorites the best picks to make the Final Four this year?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, give their official Final Four picks and sleepers with odds to win it all, courtesy of BetMGM.
West Region
Hershkovich
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (+200)
The Bulldogs boast by far the easiest region among the No. 1 seeds, and they should waltz into the Final Four. With Jalen Suggs — the highest-rated recruit in Gonzaga history — Mark Few’s team boasts the most explosive offense in the country, averaging 1.20 points per possession. Gonzaga's one concern remains interior defense, though, which could come into play if it reaches the Final Four.
Sleeper: No. 11 Drake Bulldogs (+10000)
No, the other Bulldogs aren’t reaching the Final Four. But if they get past Wichita State in their First Four matchup, Drake is a threat to knock off Kansas (yes, I said it) and make a deep run in the lower-half of the region. Look out for big man ShanQuan “Tank” Hemphill, Drake’s leading scorer (14.1 points per game) and second leading rebounder (6.3 rebounds per game), who’s expected to return for the dance after missing Arch Madness with a broken foot.
Casale
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (+200)
If you don't have Gonzaga coming out of the West region, you must really hate the Bulldogs. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament, but this bracket is a dream scenario for Gonzaga.
The Zags already easily beat No. 2 seed Iowa (99-88), No. 3 Kansas (102-90), and No. 4 Virginia (98-75) earlier this season. And none of those three match up well with the Bulldogs, especially Iowa, who doesn't have the defense to slow down Gonzaga's potent offense. I don't view No. 5 Creighton as a big threat, either. The betting market has been higher than me on the Bluejays all year.
In order for me to go against Gonzaga, I needed an athletic team like Texas in the same bracket. That didn't happen. The Zags played five Power 5 schools this season and the only team to hold them below 90 points was West Virginia at 87. This team is scary good.
Sleeper: No. 7 Oregon Ducks (+5000)
As I pointed out, there isn't much value in the West region, but I have Oregon beating Iowa and Kansas on its way to the Elite 8. I don't see the Ducks upsetting Gonzaga with the 76th rated defensive efficiency on KenPom, but at 50-1 to win it all, the Ducks are one of the most undervalued teams on the board.
Oregon is finally healthy after its top-5 scorers missed a combined 20 games during the regular season. They are the one team I can see outside of Gonzaga coming out of the West.
South Region
Hershkovich
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (+4000)
We meet again, Matt Painter. I’ll never forgive the Boilermakers for ruining my Tennessee title futures a couple seasons ago, but Purdue is the exact type of team Baylor wants to avoid — given its dominant frontcourt with bigs Trevion Williams (15.6 ppg) and Zach Edey (9.0 ppg) — generating the 3rd-highest 2-point scoring rate during Big Ten play.
The No. 4 seed might be a year away from a deep run in March, but this region actually sets up well for Painter to get over the hump and reach his first-ever Final Four.
I don't have a sleeper in this region since I took Purdue, but want to touch on No. 1 seed Baylor. Although the Bears have one of the premier offenses in the sport, their defense has regressed in the wrong direction ever since their three-week COVID layoff. Scott Drew’s team sits at No. 44 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) after ranking in the top 10 for stretches of the regular season.
The region isn’t filled with sleeper candidates — like in the East — but the Bears’ interior is more than concerning, giving up a bottom-115 opponents’ 2-point scoring rate. I expect Baylor to bust a lot of brackets.
Casale
No. 1 Baylor Bears (+500)
With all due respect to Gonzaga, I believe Baylor is the best team in the country. I have the Big 12 rated as the toughest conference in college basketball with six teams good enough to make a Final Four run.
The Bears rank No. 3 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in 3-point percentage this season. The defense slipped some at the end of the year after the COVID layoff but led by Jared Butler, Baylor has the toughest group of perimeter defenders in the country.
It should be pointed out that Baylor is now ranked 44th in defensive efficiency and history suggests teams outside the top-40 won't win the NCAA Tournament. Still, with Ohio State and Arkansas being its toughest challengers, I see Baylor making the Final Four out of the South.
I don't have any sleepers in this region but did bet No. 3 seed Arkansas 100-1 to win it all. The Hogs are probably still a year away from being a legitimate title contender, but this is a strong Elite 8-caliber team. With a pressing, wide open style of play that's tough to prepare for and stud F Justin Smith dominating in the paint, the Hogs could make a deep tournament run.
Midwest Region
Hershkovich
No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (+600)
While it’s chalky to back the Big Ten tournament champions, having the best closer in the country in Ayo Dosunmu (20.7 ppg) doesn’t hurt. Dosunmu, Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo combine to form one of the best guard trios in the bracket, and the Illini also own the 7th-lowest AdjD overall. Besides its below-average free-throw shooting (69.1%), Brad Underwood’s team doesn’t present any other glaring faults.
Sleeper: No. 10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+6600)
Tom will probably delete this from the article before it gets published (Editor's Note: It was strongly considered), but let’s roll with the Scarlet Knights. Like Drake, they don’t have the firepower to knock off the No. 1 seed in the region. Still, Rutgers’ 18th-ranked AdjD could carry them on a run, and its backcourt with Geo Baker and Jacob Young, along with Ron Harper Jr. at the stretch-four spot, provide enough scoring to help propel the No. 10 seed to the regional final.
I can't quit on my Scarlet Knights, even if it's just to piss off Tom.
Casale
No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (+600)
The Illini don't have an easy path to the Final Four. It starts with a second round matchup vs. either Georgia Tech or Loyola Chicago. That's the most dangerous 8-9 game in any region. Illinois also has to deal with legit Final Four contenders Oklahoma State, Houston, and West Virginia in the Midwest.
Even in this stacked region, I still lean to Illinois reaching the Final Four. The Illini are playing as well as anyone in the country heading into the Tournament, winners of 14 of their last 15 games. They also have the best closer in the country with G Ayo Dosunmu. In a bracket where I see a lot of close games coming, Dosunmu is the deciding factor for me.
Illinois is one of three teams to finish top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency with Gonzaga and Michigan being the two others. They will be challenged, but I like the Illini to emerge out of the Midwest and reach the Final Four.
Sleeper: No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (+2000)
A No. 3 seed isn't a big sleeper but seems like a lot of people are off the Mountaineers. I'm not one of them. West Virginia has shown it can play with CBB's elite, losing to Gonzaga by five and Baylor in overtime. That bodes well for West Virginia now that they are out of the brutal Big 12 where virtually every night is a dogfight.
The Mountaineers do have some defensive liabilities but I love the makeup of this team and Bob Huggins is one of my favorite tournament coaches to back. I got West Virginia squaring off with Houston in the Sweet 16. If they get by the Cougars, watch out.
East Region
Hershkovich
No. 3 Texas Longhorns (+2000)
Hook ‘Em, baby. I have a +4000 bet on the Big 12 tournament champions to win the national title, and they’ve developed into one of the most impressive teams down the stretch. Led by point guard Matt Coleman (13.3 ppg), the Longhorns have the guard play and the frontcourt athleticism to give opponents fits throughout the region.
Big men Jericho Sims and Kai Jones can both create off the dribble, and their ability to switch at any position has helped guide Texas to the 36th-lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in college basketball.
As much as I was intrigued by No. 1 seed Michigan down the stretch as a title contender, losing forward Isaiah Livers (stress fracture) for the foreseeable future is just an irreplaceable loss. In fact, Livers noted that it’d be “miraculous” if he returned at all during the tournament. Michigan will be on upset alert as early as the Round of 32.
Casale
No. 3 Texas Longhorns (+2000)
After going chalk in the first three regions, I'm taking the surging Longhorns to come out of the East. I will say that Texas, Alabama and UConn all being in the lower half of the East bracket is like a steel cage death match. Whoever is still standing out of that group I like to make the Final Four.
I'm a huge Abilene Christian fan but the Wildcats got a bad draw in Texas. Abilene Christian plays at a lightning fast pace, and Texas will run all day long with them. Assuming Texas wins its first two games, a real bloodbath with likely UConn or Alabama awaits. I give the Horns the edge in both matchups because of their athletic big men Greg Brown, Jericho Sims and Kai Jones. That trio will give No. 2 seed Alabama all kinds of fits in the paint.
No. 1 seeded Michigan has injury issues with Isaiah Livers' (foot) status unclear. I'm not sold at all on Florida State making a Final Four run, so I believe the winner is coming out of the lower half of the region. If the talented Longhorns play with the same intensity they did at the end of the season, they have the ingredients to win it all.
Sleeper: No. 7 UConn Huskies (+3300)
I love this UConn team, I just don't love the draw. The Huskies start with a tough opening round game vs. Maryland, before potential matchups with Alabama and Texas. And that's just to get to the Elite 8.
Still, this is a talented team, especially when G James Bouknight is healthy. The Huskies also have the size down low to bang with both Alabama and Texas in the paint. UConn ranks top-25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and went 13-2 this season with Bouknight in the lineup. Don't sleep on the Huskies!
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.