The hour-to-hour March Madness action tips-off on Friday but before we get to the main course, eight teams meet in First Four matchups on Thursday for the right to play again this weekend.
Drake and Wichita State square off in a meeting between two surprising mid-major programs. The betting line has moved significantly in this game but which team has the edge?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, have a top play on the same side for Thursday. Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Drake Bulldogs (-1, 140.5) vs. Wichita State Shockers
Not only are the Bulldogs a superior team on the glass (63rd-highest defensive rebounding rate), but they’re also getting the 6-foot-6 ShanQuan “Tank” Hemphill back after he missed Arch Madness with a foot fracture.
Hemphill is the leading scorer (14.1 ppg) and second-leading rebounder (6.3 rpg) for a Drake squad that generated the 16th-highest 2-point scoring rate in the country. Look for Hemphill and the versatile, 6-foot-6 Tremell Murphy (10.2 ppg) to establish themselves around the rim against a vulnerable Shockers’ interior defense — before opening up the Bulldogs’ perimeter attack (36.6%, 53rd-highest percentage).
Drake also owns the 65th-highest offensive rebounding rate in Division I while Wichita State has amassed the 16th-lowest defensive rebounding percentage.
Hemphill and 6-foot-10 big Darnell Brodie should play a critical role in generating second-chance opportunities.
I bet Drake +2 earlier in the week, but there’s still some value left in this number.
Casale
Drake Bulldogs (-1, 140.5) vs. Wichita State Shockers
I love this Wichita State team and head coach Isaac Brown has done an all-time great coaching job getting the Shockers to the tournament after the mess he inherited from the departed Gregg Marshall. But the run ends on Thursday night.
Not only do I think Drake is the more talented team in this matchup, but the Bulldogs have a big edge on the board, as Eli already astutely pointed out. Drake is one of the better rebounding teams in the country, while Wichita State ranks 333th in defensive rebounding percentage. In a game I expect will be competitive throughout, second-chance points will be a key factor for the Bulldogs.
Both of these teams like to play at a slower pace, ranking outside the top-200 in pace. In a game that could be a grind at times, Drake's size down low will be the difference. I got the Bulldogs +2 but the money has come in on Drake, making them a 1-point favorite as of Wednesday. I'd still play it at that number. A tremendous second half team, Drake should pull away and cover as a small favorite.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.