Sports bettors have waited a long time for the return of the NCAA Tournament, and here we are! There are a wide range of bets to make, and we are here to help make sure you are equipped with the knowledge to make smart wagers.
The brackets are set and we are ready for a full serving of the 2021 ‘Big Dance.’
This is our Midwest Region preview, anchored by No. 1 seed Illinois. This is a deep region with several intriguing teams that are worth keeping an eye on.
Here are each team’s odds to win the region from BetMGM:
Team to beat: Illinois +150
Illinois is scorching hot heading into the NCAA Tournament. Ayo Dosunmu has not missed a step after missing three games with a broken nose, and the Illini are playing their best ball of the season.
The team has won 14 of 15 including the Big Ten Tournament. Top 10 in both KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency, Illinois is a strong bet to represent this region in the Final 4.
However, the selection committee didn’t make it easy. A second round matchup against overqualified eight seed Loyola Chicago could be on tap for the Illini over the weekend. The speed of Dosunmu, Andre Curbelo and Trent Frazier may be too much for the Ramblers.
Past that, a potential matchup against Cade Cunningham and the No. 4 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys looms large. Cunningham is the likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and was dominant in the Big 12 Tournament, where the Pokes were able to take down No. 1 seed Baylor. I’ll dive into Oklahoma State below.
If they survive, Dosunmu and co. may have to face Houston in what is sure to be a classic. I would lean with the Illini still, who can beat teams inside and out, as well as by being dominant on the glass with big man Kofi Cockburn down low.
In closing, I see this team going to the National Championship game. Dosunmu is as good as advertised and the Illini have a complete roster with Cockburn on the block. Illinois is a lethal perimeter shooting team, top 25 in the country, but aren’t over reliant on it, placing outside the top 300 in three-point rate. Brad Underwood’s team has versatility, which might be their best attribute en route to a deep run.
Sleeper: Tennessee +1000
I mentioned Cunningham and the Cowboys as a frisky No. 4 seed, but I actually think that Tennessee is poised for a run as the No. 5 seed. The Vols get a first round matchup against Oregon State, who got in by winning the PAC-12 Tournament.
While I have been looking to bet the Beavers all season, the team used outlier three-point shooting -- 43.9% from deep over their three game run -- to earn an automatic bid. However, this is still a middling PAC-12 team that will struggle with the length of the Vols. Tennessee’s ability to shut down the perimeter and dominate inside on offense should be enough. The Vols were best in the SEC at getting to the free throw line, while Oregon State was last in conference play in sending opponents to the charity stripe.
Pat that, I’m bullish on Tennessee in a second round matchup against Oklahoma State, if we get it. Oklahoma State is 298th in the country in turnover rate, which will be exploited by Rocky Top’s top 14 turnover rate.
The Vols may be without John Fulkerson after suffering facial fractures in the SEC Tournament, but they still have the size and length to match up with Oklahoma State in a potential second round showdown.
I don't envision a deep of a run for the Vols, who go through brutal stretches on offense, but their defense can give the wrong teams problems.
Team to fade: West Virginia +700
I’ve soured on Country Roads. While the offense is potent, I don’t believe it can outweigh their porous defense.
West Virginia goes through stretches where it can’t get a stop, evident in a loss to Oklahoma State at home without Cade Cunningham. The Mountaineers defensive efficiency has slipped to 65th in the country, per KenPom.
On offense, while the team has microwave scorers like Deuce McBride and Taz Sherman, I’m concerned about their offensive profile. The team scores a ton of their points via second chances and free throws.
They are 13th in offensive rebounding percentage and 17th in free throw rate. Against the wrong matchup, West Virginia may struggle to get easy sources of offense.
Morehead State is not an easy first round matchup for this team as the Eagles are a sound defensive rebounding team, top 70 in the country. They also avoid fouling their opponents with the 13th lowest opponent free throw rate.
I’m not calling for a first round exit, Morehead State’s offense will struggle to keep up with the Mountaineers, but I do think we see an underwhelming stretch from Bobby Huggins’ team.
I’ll be looking to bet against West Virginia and their shaky form as long as they stay in the field.
First Round Upset: Liberty (+7.5, 140.5) vs. Oklahoma State - Friday, 6:25 PM EST
Full disclosure: I bet this during BetQL U’s live show Sunday night at Liberty +9.5. That number is gone, but I do think if this gets to 8 or higher it’s back in range to make a bet.
I spoke above about Oklahoma State’s turnover issues being a potential pitfall against Tennessee, but that isn’t the issue in this matchup. This one is centered around perimeter shooting and pace.
Liberty is a knockdown three-point shooting team that is top 10 in the country in three-point percentage. If the Flames are on from deep, the Cowboys can be in for a long evening.
Besides the fact that Oklahoma State is an average at best three-point shooting team (under 34%), if the Flames are hot from beyond the arc, the game will be played on their terms.
Oklahoma State likes to play fast and get to the rim, but if Liberty is knocking down shots, they can set up their defense and play the game in the half court and grind possessions out. The Flames play at the 348th fastest tempo in the country, and can turn this game into a crawl, which is great for a several possession spread like we have here as well as a potential outright upset.
It’s tough to fade the ultra talented Cunningham, but the recipe is here for a first round exit.
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
