The NCAA Tournament first round tips off on Friday, treating college basketball junkies to four days of betting, upsets, and buzzer beaters.
The betting odds for all the March Madness matchups were released on Selection Sunday, shortly after the NCAA Tournament field was announced. Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, broke down all the games and give out their best bets for Round 1 with odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Wednesday.
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Hershkovich
Rutgers Scarlett Knights (-1.5) vs. Clemson Tigers
The Scarlet Knights and Tigers rank No. 75 and No. 99 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on KenPom, respectively, but these are two of the more elite units at the other end — both owning a top-20 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This game will be a rock fight at both sides of the court.
Still, Steve Pikiell’s unit boasts two pivotal advantages versus Clemson’s offense.
With the Tigers delivering the 27th-highest 3-point scoring rate in the country, Rutgers’ stout perimeter defense will be a major factor. It’s yielding the 84th-lowest 3-point percentage (32.1%) in Division I.
Moreover, the Scarlet Knights’ ball pressure really ramped up in Big Ten play, generating the third-highest opponent's turnover rate in-conference. Rutgers guards Geo Baker and Jacob Young should be able to speed up the tempo if they can manufacture takeaways against a Tigers team that notched the ACC’s fifth-highest turnover percentage.
I grabbed Rutgers -1 earlier in the week, but I’d bet it up to the current spread. Sorry Tom, I know you hate Rutgers.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (+16.5) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
After losing four straight games entering the Big Ten tournament, the Buckeyes made a run to the conference title game. The market is inflating this spread as a result.
Ohio State’s perimeter defense regressed in the wrong direction during Big Ten play, placing in the bottom-150 in opponents’ 3-point percentage (34.1%). On the other side, the Golden Eagles produced the 9th-highest perimeter scoring rate and 11th-highest 3-point clip (38.8%) in the nation.
OSU is also dealing with an injury to keep an eye on. Ohio State forward Kyle Young (concussion), who's one of the team's key two-way players, could also miss the game.
Watch out for 6-foot-1 guard Max Abmas (24.2 points per game), who’s put up the 53rd-highest true shooting percentage (63.6%) in college basketball. Even if Oral Roberts struggles to get stops, Abmas’ perimeter game can carry the Golden Eagles to a cover.
Ohio Bobcats (+7.5) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
I took the Bobcats +8.5, but would bet it at the current number as well. Ohio point guard Jason Preston, who’s racked up the 10th-highest assist rate in college basketball, will be the key to speeding up the tempo and making Virginia operate at an even more efficient rate — given its slow pace. Preston should dominate the Cavaliers’ Kihei Clark in the halfcourt, too.
With Preston leading the way, Ohio boasts the 56th-highest 3-point clip (36.6%) in the country, and its perimeter attack is critical against Virginia’s pack-line defense that crams the paint.
No matter who ends up suiting up for Tony Bennett’s team because of its COVID situation, one day of practice in Indianapolis shouldn’t produce much confidence in the favorite. Look for Preston and high-powered Ohio offense to give UVA fits and have a shot to pull the outright upset.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (+7.5) vs. No. 5 Creighton Bluejays
In order to compete in the NCAA Tournament, the underdog typically needs to disrupt the opponent's style of play. With UCSB’s size edge, Joe Pasternack’s team should be able to control the glass and slow down the tempo — which isn’t Creighton’s preferred pace. The Gauchos even present a top-50 opponent's 3-point scoring rate, and their perimeter defense will give the Bluejays’ shooters fits around the arc.
Watch out for 6-foot-4 Jaquori McLaughlin (43rd-highest assist rate), who can dominate a game in the halfcourt. With Amadou Sow and high-major transfer (Oregon) Miles Norris (9.6 points per game) down low, USCB is filled with the components to score efficiently at the rim.
Gauchos guard Ajare Sanni (ankle) -- the Big West sixth man of the year -- is day-to-day after suffering the injury in the conference title game on Saturday. Even if he were to miss the Round of 64, he isn't a major contributor for them defensively.
This matchup reminds me of Murray State’s upset win over Marquette in 2019, as the Golden Eagles’ perimeter-oriented attack ran into an elite 3-point defense and a dominant guard in Ja Morant. Expect a similar result in Indianapolis. I have the Gauchos winning this game and will gladly take the 7.5 points in a matchup that is pretty even across the board.
Casale
Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5) vs. Colgate Raiders
Rutgers? What a surprise, Eli. So predictable. Oh well, let's get down to business.
There's a lot of Colgate love out there but I follow the Patriot League closely and this is a nightmare matchup for the Raiders.
Colgate looks good on paper but has faced just five subpar Patriot League teams all season: Boston, Army, Holy Cross, Bucknell, and Loyola, so the Raiders' impressive metrics are skewed. Despite playing that cake schedule, Colgate allowed 70+ points in 8 of 15 games. How many points do you think the Hogs will hang on them?
This is a perfect example of people liking a team over the matchup. If Colgate played a slower paced team like Virginia or Villanova, they would be a strong upset pick. However, Arkansas plays the same style with a deeper team and better players. Both teams rank top-25 in pace and the Razorbacks will be more than happy to run all game long with Colgate.
This will be a reality check for Colgate. Look for Arkansas to dominate in the paint with F Justin Smith, beat Colgate at its own game, and cover this number. Woo Pig!
Ohio Bobcats (+7.5) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
I hit the Bobcats +8.5 and +320 on the moneyline shortly after the line came out, but would play Ohio down to +7.
The Cavaliers were forced to withdraw from the ACC Tournament because of COVID issues. They are expected to arrive in Indianapolis a day before the game with most of the team in quarantine until Thursday. That's not ideal in any situation, but the committee did Virginia no favors by matching them up with one of the most talented lower seeds in the tournament.
Ohio has a star in guard Jason Preston (16.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 7.2 apg). Preston's ability to create and drive into the lane will cause problems for Virginia's pack line defense. The Bobcats ranked second in the MAC in effective field goal percentage at 54.5%.
It's just a bad draw for a Virginia team likely to be rusty after the COVID layoff. Ohio is one of the few mid-majors that has the offensive firepower to make UVA play at a faster pace than it likes. In my brackets, I took Ohio to win this game and also defeat the winner of Creighton/UC-Santa Barbara to advance to the Sweet 16.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.