The 2021 NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16. Will betting underdogs continue to bark like they did during the first two rounds of March Madness?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, break down all the Sweet 16 matchups and give their top plays for Saturday with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (+11.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Oral Roberts’ shooting prowess won’t run cold in this game — at least from a point-spread perspective with a slightly inflated number.
When these two teams matched up on Dec. 20, the Golden Eagles shot just 27.6% from the behind the arc and still covered the closing line (+19.5). They were leading by 5 points at the break before getting exposed on the glass in the second half.
Oral Roberts boasts the 9th-highest 3-point scoring rate and the 14th-highest 3-point clip (38.2%) in the country, respectively, while Arkansas is allowing a bottom-100 scoring rate in that department. Microwave guard Max Asmas and big man Kevin Obanor combined to average 56.5 points per game over their first two matchups of the dance, and they shouldn’t have an issue lighting up Arkansas’ perimeter defense — with a 5-day gap in between the second-round win over Florida and this contest.
Arkansas is the lengthier team and should win the rebounding battle once again, especially on the offensive glass. Nevertheless, Oral Roberts’ ball pressure (83rd-highest opponent's turnover rate) will be able to generate some havoc against the Razorbacks’ guards, who have experienced sloppy play against athletic teams that can switch at every position.
I’ll grab the points with this year’s Cinderella team.
Houston Cougars (-6) vs. Syracuse Orange
There’s a slight market overreaction to Syracuse’s run to the Midwest regional semifinals, as Jim Boeheim’s team has faced a pair of opponents (West Virginia, San Diego State) that both struggled to defend the perimeter. The Orange combined to shoot 50.0% from behind the arc in both of those games.
That likely won’t be the case against Houston. Kelvin Sampson’s unit is yielding the 12th-lowest 3-point (29.3%) clip in the country, along with the 105th-lowest opponents’ perimeter scoring rate. The Cougars are reliant on their ball pressure around the arc, so generating clean looks for Buddy (not Hield) Boeheim shouldn’t be as trouble-free.
At the other end, Houston has racked up the 57th-highest perimeter scoring rate in the country, and is reliant on the 3-ball just as much. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is susceptible to shots from behind the arc, and if the Cougars can play at a snail’s pace (325th-lowest Adjusted Tempo), it should be able to frustrate the Orange.
Moreover, Houston guard DeJon Jarreau (hip) should be more effective after being hampered throughout the Cougars’ nail-biting win over Rutgers on Sunday. Jarreau represents both a sound on-ball defender and a key floor-spacer (36.7%) at the other end.
Houston’s also notched the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country, led by 6-foot-7 big Justin Gorham, compared to Syracuse tallying the ninth-worst defensive rebounding rate. The Orange have clearly struggled on the glass out of the zone, and that’s an issue versus an elite gang rebounding team.
Although this line is still too many points to lay, I’ll be looking to bet Houston live — at -1 or better.
Casale
Baylor Bears (-7) vs. Villanova Wildcats
Villanova head coach Jay Wright has done a great job getting the Wildcats to the Sweet 16 without injured star Collin Gillespie but the run ends here.
Villanova played well defensively in its first two NCAA Tournament wins, but that was against Winthrop and North Texas. Business is about to pick up on Saturday when Baylor comes calling. This is a terrible matchup for a Wildcats team that has struggled to defend the perimeter all season.
The Bears are the top 3-point shooting team in CBB and should feast on a Villanova defense that allows opponents to shoot 34.9% (236th) from long range. We saw with Iowa losing to Oregon that having a suspect defense catches up with teams at some point. Winthrop and North Texas weren't able to exploit a Wildcats unit that ranks 71st in defensive efficiency. It will be a different story when facing Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and the best group of guards in college basketball.
This is a huge step up in class for Villanova and it's creating a little value on the line. The Wildcats have really struggled to contain perimeter-oriented offenses all season, and I expect that trend to continue in the Sweet 16. Baylor's elite guards will be the difference on both ends of the floor as the Bears win by double-digits.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.