The first four days of March Madness are down to just one. After Monday, the 2021 NCAA Tournament will be down to the Sweet 16. The Tournament has been filled with upsets with brackets being busted and a few betting underdogs winning outright.
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, broke down all the games for Round 2 and give their top plays for Monday with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Ohio Bobcats (+5.5) vs. Creighton Bluejays
We’re going back to the well with the fighting Jason Prestons — otherwise known as the Bobcats.
When Ohio was in sync against Virginia down the stretch, the 6-foot-4 Preston attacked the rim and created for his teammates. Preston should have more room to operate in the lane versus the Bluejays’ defense — even with Marcus Zegarowski’s on-ball pressure, and they’re yielding the 90th-highest opponents’ 3-point scoring rate to top it off.
The Bobcats should be able to cash in with the 61st-highest 3-point clip (36.3%) in the country, especially if the 6-foot-8 Ben Vander Plas can space the floor like he did against UVA (17 points, 3 3s).
Ohio’s defense can be had (107th-highest opponents’ 3-point scoring rate), but it’s slightly superior on the defensive glass. If Jeff Boals’ team keeps the Bluejays off the offensive boards and generates more of a halfcourt game, it should be able to hang within two possessions.
LSU Tigers (+5.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines
Tom and I broke this one down a bit on the BetQL U podcast, and the more I dig into it, there’s some value in this line for the underdog.
The Wolverines may be averaging 1.16 points per possession over their past three games without senior forward Isaiah Livers (stress fracture), but their defense has taken a step back, allowing 1.03 opponent's PPP during that stretch.
Michigan’s letting up the 91st-highest 2-point scoring rate in Division I, and the Tigers’ offense is at its best when it’s attacking the paint in transition. If this game is played in the halfcourt, LSU won’t hang around for an entire 40 minutes. But Will Wade’s team has an advantage in the backcourt with Cameron Thomas and Javonte Smart — athletically and size wise — over the Wolverines’ backcourt.
Juwan Howard’s bunch will look to establish the 7-foot-1 Hunter Dickenson (14.3 ppg) down low early, yet one of the Tigers’ only defensive strengths is their interior defense. They’re giving up the 99th-lowest opponents’ 2-point scoring rate, as bigs Trendon Watford, Darius Days and the rest of their frontcourt are extremely physical.
Give me LSU +5.5 in what should be a close game.
Casale
Colorado Buffaloes (+1) vs. Florida State Seminoles
I've been down on Florida State and the ACC for months. The Seminoles survived a late scare against UNC Greensboro in Round 1 but I think they go home on Monday.
My issue all season with Florida State has been turnovers. It's hard to make a run in the NCAA Tournament if you turn the ball over a lot and give opponents easy buckets. Florida State ranks 248th in turnover percentage, averaging over 20 a game. FSU was sloppy in the opener committing 15 turnovers but they had enough to fend off an inferior UNC Greensboro squad. That won't be the case against the much more talented Buffaloes.
Colorado ranks top-120 in creating turnovers, forcing just under 20 a game. Led by G McKinley Wright, the Buffs have a team built to make a run in the tournament, ranking 20th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage.
That was on full display in Colorado's opening round demolition over Georgetown, where the Buffaloes shot a sizzling 64% from three. While that percentage will certainly go down on Monday, Colorado has enough scorers to give what I think is an overrated FSU defense, issues.
Another area where the Buffs have a big edge is in offensive rebounding. Florida State is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams left in the tournament. In what is an even game on paper, second chance points will play a big factor. Edge: Colorado.
Florida State was a sexy pick to reach the Final Four but I'm not a big believer in this team. If Colorado can pressure the ball and create 15+ turnovers, I see them moving on to the Sweet 16.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.