March Madness did not disappoint in Round 1 with upsets and bad betting beats. What does the second-round have in store?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, went a perfect 5-0 in their first-round best bets with underdogs Oral Roberts and Ohio winning outright. The two broke down all the games for Round 2 and give their top plays for Sunday with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Note: Eli and Thomas' best bets for Monday's second-round matchups will be out Sunday evening.
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Hershkovich
Syracuse Orange (+3.5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
You might be wondering when Orange wing Buddy Boeheim is going to cool off, shooting 50.0% from behind the arc over his past 10 games. Don’t expect that to occur against the Mountaineers.
Ever since Bob Huggins shifted to more of a matchup zone in Big 12 play with his small-ball lineup, West Virginia’s defense suffered, yielding the conference’s fourth-highest 3-point scoring rate. If the Orange can speed up the tempo in transition, Boeheim and Syracuse guard Alan Griffin (36.9%) will have success.
Jim Boeheim’s bunch also has a significant size advantage, and the Mountaineers struggle to clean up the defensive glass, notching the 53rd-lowest rate in the country. Orange forward Quincy Guerrier should be a sneaky contributor to watch for in that department, and he’ll have a physicality edge over West Virginia forward Jalen Bridges.
Moreover, the Mountaineers benefited from Morehead State’s 18 turnovers in the Round of 64, while Syracuse boasts the 36th-lowest turnover rate.
At the other end, the Orange’s perimeter defense (31.5%) is not only significantly more reliable -- even within Boeheim’s 2-3 zone -- but it also limits its opponents’ ability to get to the line. West Virginia relies on that category, notching the 21st-highest free-throw rate in Division I.
Give me SU getting over a possession in this game.
Rutgers Scarlett Knights (+8) vs. Houston Cougars
My apologies, Tom. As long as Scarlet Knights big Myles Johnson (ankle) suits up, I’ll have a bet on the underdog, hopefully at +8 or better.
Rutgers generated just 0.94 points per possession in its first-round win over Clemson, and its offense doesn’t have a great matchup against a stout Cougars’ interior defense.
But at the other end, Houston relies on its perimeter attack at the 55th-highest rate in college basketball, similar to Clemson. Steve Pikiell’s team is allowing the 83rd-lowest 3-point clip in the country (32.1%), as its ball pressure around the arc doesn’t lead to many open looks.
If Rutgers can rack up defensive stops, it’s prowess for speeding up the pace with guards Geo Baker and Jacob Young would play more towards its preferred offensive style. The Scarlets Knights’ biggest matchup advantage could be forward Ron Harper Jr. versus Cougars’ big man Justin Gorham, as Harper has the ability to beat Gorham off the dribble if the Scarlet Knights operate at their pace.
Note: Houston guard DeJon Jarreau (hip) practiced this afternoon, and he’s expected to be available.
Casale
Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 147.5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
I have two plays but they are in the same game. I'm taking underdog Syracuse getting 3.5 points and over the 147.5.
The Orange decimated San Diego State in Round 1, holding the Aztecs to just 11 of 40 (28%) from 3-point range. I'm a Syracuse fan and tend to be tough on Jim Boeheim because he hasn't come out of the 2-3 zone in over 40 years. The reality is San Diego State missed a lot of wide open looks but the zone isn't why I like the Orange here, it's the offense.
I have to give Boeheim credit, he finally found the right rotation a month ago when he started giving 6-5 freshman Kadary Richmond more minutes. Richmond has been fighting through a knee injury but still played 16 minutes in the opening game blowout. His presence gives SU more athleticism at the top of the zone and a guy who can create off the dribble to help get red-hot Buddy Boeheim open looks on the perimeter.
West Virginia has issues on the defensive end, especially against better competition. Since Jan. 2, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 80.5 points in 12 games versus Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Florida. Syracuse is hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 70+ points in 8 of its last 10 games.
Eli mentioned the Mountaineers' defensive rebounding woes but where West Virginia has a big edge is in offensive rebounding. The Orange struggle on the boards playing that 2-3 zone (339th in defensive rebounding percentage), while the Mountaineers rank 13th in offensive rebounding. Look for F Derek Culver to clean up the glass and get some easy putbacks.
This should be a competitive, entertaining game with each team scoring in the 70s. I'll take Syracuse +3.5 (like it down to +3) and over 147.5. I also hit the Syracuse team total over 71.5 if your book offers it.
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To hear more March Madness predictions from Eli Hershkovich and Thomas Casale, check out their BetQL U podcast.