The 2021 NCAA Tournament is upon us! After a year hiatus, us sports bettors are as hungry as ever to wager on March Madness.
Our region-by-region preview focuses on the West Region, headlined by the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Here are each team’s odds to win the region from BetMGM:
Team to beat: Gonzaga Bulldogs -175
Gonzaga has one of the easiest paths to the Final Four that I can remember.
Besides the fact that the Zags are the best team in the country, they have already decimated three threats to their undefeated season.
Gonzaga beat No. 2 seed Iowa handily by 11 earlier this year. Mark Few’s Bulldogs also beat No. 3 Kansas 102-90 and bludgeoned No. 4 Virginia by 23. All of those games were on neutral floors.
We will get to those three below, but there is no stiff competition to the best team in the country. -175 feels cheap as they are set to be massive favorites throughout this region in any matchup.
Sleeper: Oregon Ducks +1600
This number is incredibly high to me. Oregon is the only team not named Gonzaga in this region when looking at valuable bets to make.
The Ducks should be able to handle their first round opponent, No. 10 seed VCU. The Rams are dependent on turning their opponents over, which will be difficult against an Oregon team that is inside the top 70 in protecting the rock.
After that, I see matchup edges for Oregon against Iowa. The Ducks have five players in their rotation that shoot better than 35% from three and they will be able to score and set up their extended zone defense. Luka Garza may have a big outing, but the Ducks will be live dogs to win that matchup and get to the Sweet 16.
After that, give me Dana Altman against USC or a Kansas offense that lacks a dynamic ball handler in a tournament setting.
You can get out of this with a hedge on a dangerous Elite 8 candidate.
Team to fade: Virginia Cavaliers +1000
Virginia was a team I was interested in fading before the news of a positive COVID-19 test came up in the program, jumbling their travel plans.
That news, which led to an early exit from the ACC Tournament, as well as the latest on their travel situation, make UVA an auto fade for the tourney, no matter how long it lasts.
The Cavaliers also drew a brutal first round matchup with a streaking No. 13 seed Ohio. We all know how methodical Virginia games tend to become, and the Bobcats can put up points against what is an overrated Virginia defense.
The No. 13 seed is comfortable shooting from deep and can match Virginia's three-point shooting. Ohio strokes it at over 36% as a team, while Virginia has the 54th highest three-point rate, hitting on 38% of their threes.
The UVA defense has strong marks, 33rd in the nation per KenPom, but I can’t help but notice their below average three-point defense, allowing teams to shoot above average from deep.
Virginia is a great perimeter shooting team and has size down low in Jay Huff, but the COVID-19 pause coupled with Ohio's star point guard Jason Preston’s ability to destroy defenses, makes Virginia a tough team to back making a deep run in this tournament.
As noted before, a potential Sweet 16 opponent in Gonzaga makes this a tough situation to get excited about. The No. 1 seed rolled Virginia by 23 earlier this season and there is nothing to convince me the same wouldn’t happen in a rematch.
First round upset: Eastern Washington Eagles (+10.5) vs. Kansas Jayhawks - Saturday, 1:15
I believe that UC-Santa Barbara and Ohio are also live underdogs, but I’m going to key in on Eastern Washington as my upset pick for this region.
Before we dive into the matchup, we don’t know exactly what kind of shape Kansas is going to be heading into this game. Reports have surfaced that big man David McCormack will arrive in Indianapolis on Friday and is on track to be available to play, but the team will be without forward Jalen Wilson.
McCormack is a huge addition for the Jayhawks, the team's most used player on offense. However, Kansas, like Virginia, has jumbled travel plans and there is uncertainty about what kind of shape the team will be in. This is opening up betting value for the Eagles.
The Jayhawks only go seven deep on the bench, so with news breaking of no Wilson, the team will be shorthanded.
For Eastern Washington, they have an explosive offense that is 30th in the country in raw offensive efficiency, per TeamRankings.com. If you strip out the weighted strength of schedule from KenPom, EWU is an offensive juggernaut
The Eagles shoot nearly 36% from deep as a team and play at the 28th fastest tempo. The team also protects the ball well, 55th lowest turnover rate in the country.
We have seen Kansas go through serious scoring droughts, like when they had to rally to beat TCU and UTEP at home during this season, but neither of those teams have the offensive firepower as EWU.
McCormack should be able to score on the Eagles defense, and the underdog may play too fast for their own good, but if they are able to protect the ball and get hot from three, this game becomes interesting.
Eastern Washington may bust the bottom half of this bracket wide open.
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
