Headlining the final day of 2020, we are treated to three bowl games to sink our teeth into. Highlighted by sentimental favorite Army battling West Virginia, bettors can wager on college football all day long to close out the year.
* All odds are courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook on Tuesday afternoon
Armed Forces Bowl - Tulsa (-2.5, 47) vs. Mississippi State, 12 PM EST
Mike Leach’s air raid is going to a bowl game in his first season in Starkville despite some poor results. The Bulldogs went 3-7 in 2020 and while Leach has been strict to his offensive philosophy, the roster may not be in place for it to thrive just yet. Freshman quarterback Will Rogers took over at quarterback for K.J. Costello mid-season, but neither has been very effective running Leach’s usually high-scoring offense.
Tulsa has had an impressive season behind a standout defense. The Golden Hurricane’s defense allowed third down conversions at a 32% clip in 2020 and gave up just 4.6 yards per play.
However, the team is going to be without Bronco Nagurski Award Winner, the nation’s best defensive player, Zaven Collins on Thursday, who declared for the NFL Draft.
This is a brutal blow for the anchor of the Tulsa defense, but I do expect them to still contain the air raid and come out with a win. Tulsa’s offense struggles at times but the Golden Hurricane usually saves its best for late in the game, pulling off double-digit comebacks against East Carolina, Tulane, and SMU this season.
I’m on Tulsa at -2.5, even without Collins. The Golden Hurricane defense should still be able to stymie a punchless Mississippi State offense.
BetQL predicts the winner of every CFB bowl game. The BetQL model has a top play on Mississippi State-Tulsa. Sign up now and become a better bettor with BetQL!
Arizona Bowl - Ball State vs. San Jose State (-9.5, 64), 2 PM EST
One of the last four unbeaten teams left in college football, San Jose State, is attempting to cap off its season with a win against the MAC champion, Ball State.
Led by transfer quarterback Nick Starkel, SJSU has been a consistent threat on offense, averaging nearly 31 points per game and posting one of the highest explosive pass rates in the country. Only sacked seven times this year, Starkel has been one of the most efficient passers in the country, completing nearly 65% of his passes on 8.7 yards per attempt. This offense is humming, but Ball State may be able to hang around.
Ball State has not generated a ton of pressure on quarterbacks this season, but has limited explosive plays and stifled opponent rushing attacks, allowing less than four yards per carry.
Senior quarterback Drew Plitt is in command of a balanced offense, but San Jose State has seen some formidable offenses already this season, containing high-scoring Nevada and Boise State in the past month.
San Jose State is 6-1 to the under this year, yet continues to have totals placed in the high 50’s, and in this case the 60’s. Ball State does like to play at one of the fastest rates in the country, so there could be some quick scoring drives, making me think this game will go over the number.
This line peaked at -10 for SJSU, and has since dipped back to -9.5. You can hold out for that to cross back through the key number of 10 with public sentiment on the undefeated Spartans like I am, but I still like Ball State at +8 or higher.
Liberty Bowl - Army vs. West Virginia (-7.5, 41.5), 4 PM EST
Army is filling in for Tennessee in the Liberty Bowl, which should be an absolute rock fight between the Cadets’ methodical triple option and the tough West Virginia D.
Preparing for the triple option is always tricky, but West Virginia can contain it. The Mountaineer defensive line has been a bright spot in 2020, with one of lowest defensive line yard rates in the country, according to CollegeFootballData. Defensive Line Yards assesses the value of the line’s effect on rush attempts.
I like head coach Neal Brown getting his defense up for this one in his first bowl game with the school, despite a few opt outs on that side of the ball.
Both defenses should shine, but there are enough weapons on the West Virginia offense to edge out a victory. Leddie Brown is the lead man in the Mountaineer backfield, rushing for over five yards a carry. He has also been a threat in the passing game, with 31 catches on the year. It’s not an explosive offense, but it has been able to control the clock and move down the field with Brown leading a reliable, balanced attack.
I don’t foresee many scores in this one, but I trust that West Virginia’s defense shows up and slows down the triple option. I’d take the under at anything above 41. There won’t be many possessions in this one due to both team’s deliberate pace and limited scoring opportunities. As for the side it is a stay away for me at this point. If Army falls behind early, it could be too much to overcome with the slow developing offense.