NFL Divisional Round weekend is upon us and we have you covered with a market update, key trends, and picks for both of Saturday matchups.
We also added BetQL's model pick for each game to help bettors make the best decision in the Los Angeles Rams-Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens-Buffalo Bills matchups.
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Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 46), 4:35 EST
This line opened Green Bay -7. Despite 81% of the tickets and 75% of the handle being on the Packers, the line has dropped inside of a touchdown with the home favorite sitting at -6.5. The total has been holding firm at 46 at BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
Trends
-- Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 11-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in the postseason.
-- Rams quarterback Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS (1-1 straight up) in below freezing temperatures in his NFL career.
-- Teams off a bye in the divisional round with a spread bigger than 3 points are 18-16-1 ATS since the 2010 postseason.
-- Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS in both the regular season and postseason as a road underdog of 3 or more points. He is 21-13 ATS on the road for his coaching career.
Picks
If Los Angeles can win the battle in the trenches and shorten Green Bay’s drives, they can stay close. However, it is easier said than done.
Green Bay leads the NFL in time of possession and averages more than three points per drive, the best mark in the league.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers' rush defense can be exploited by Rams running back Cam Akers. Akers had 131 yards on the ground last week and will be matched up against a unit that is below the league average in rushing success rate, per SharpFootballStats.
The Rams path to victory boils down to causing turnovers, getting pressure on Rodgers, and dominating the running game.
My play for this one is to tease to the Packers down to a point or less, I’m confident they win the game. The offense is humming and capable of cashing in on the opportunities that Seattle couldn't last weekend against Los Angeles.
BetQL also sees a close game, projecting this spread at +4 and sees value in the Rams at +6.5.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 50), 8:15 PM EST
BetMGM opened this up at Buffalo -2.5 and the point spread has remained there all week, despite a majority of the action coming in on the Bills. The sportsbook operator reports that Buffalo is receiving 67% of the tickets and 50% of the money as of Thursday afternoon.
The total sits at 49.5. An overwhelming amount of money and bets have come in on the over, 75% of tickets and 82% of the handle are on the over, yet BetMGM has not moved the total.
Trends
-- Ravens coach John Harbaugh in the postseason: 12-6 ATS as coach, 10-3 on the road.
-- Harbaugh coached postseason games are 12-6 to the under.
-- Road underdogs of 3 points or less are 24-12-1 ATS since 2004.
-- The Bills were tied for the best record ATS in the league this season at 11-5.
Picks
The Bills are talented, but their win over the Colts on Wild Card Weekend was far from impressive. Indianapolis dominated the field position battle and ran with ease on the Buffalo defense, averaging more than five yards per carry. Without some critical errors on fourth downs and inside the red zone, the Colts may have won that game outright.
Now, the Bills are tasked with stopping a Lamar Jackson led offense that will look to exploit the Buffalo defense on the ground. The AFC East champs are 28th in the league in opponent rushing success rate, and will be in trouble against the Ravens Saturday night. Baltimore averaged more than six yards per carry last weekend, including 136 from Jackson.
The market is catching up to the Ravens, who seem to be peaking at the right time behind a healthy defense and confident Jackson. The BetQL model agrees, they make Baltimore +.5 in this one and think there is value on the Ravens at inside of a field goal.