Winners of five straight, the Baltimore Ravens roll into Nashville to take on the AFC South Champion Tennessee Titans with revenge on their mind.
Tennessee has won its last two meetings against the Ravens, most notably last postseason in Baltimore when Derrick Henry and the Titans steamrolled the No. 1 seed, 28-12.
Will Lamar Jackson and the Ravens get revenge on Sunday? Baltimore enters a road betting favorite of -3.5 as of this writing at DraftKings Sportsbook. Other shops, such as FanDuel Sportsbook, have moved the Ravens to -3 with a premium on Baltimore, making the odds -124 to grab the key number.
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Are the Ravens for real?
Last year’s regular season darling, the Ravens were handed some humble pie in the first half of the 2020 season, losing to several AFC playoff teams such as the Chiefs, Steelers, and their opponent on Sunday, the Titans.
However, some fortuitous scheduling against weaker teams allowed the Ravens to rattle off five straight to close out the year after dealing with an internal COVID-19 outbreak and enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
Baltimore beat the Cowboys, Browns, Jaguars, Giants and Bengals over its last five, getting back to its bread and butter of running all over the opposing defense. But did the quality of opponents mask that fact the Ravens need a specific game script in order to win? Jackson has yet to show the passing game can carry the offense versus better teams if the Ravens' rushing attack is stymied.
If Baltimore is able to set the tone and jump out to an early lead, their run game takes over, with time consuming drives and a punishing rushing attack. Baltimore averages more than five yards per rush, distributing carries around to quarterback Lamar Jackson, rookie running back J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and veteran Mark Ingram.
However, as seen against the likes of Tennessee last postseason and Kansas City this year, if Jackson is forced to air the ball out and pass to keep Baltimore in it, the Ravens are much less effective. Jackson ranks just 19th in the NFL in yards gained per pass attempt.
Of course, every team wants to be up early and control the game flow, but Baltimore is one dimensional in this regard due to its run heavy offense. The Ravens led the NFL in calling running plays at 55.9%. In a pass happy league, John Harbaugh and the Ravens still prefer to run the football.
Titans D is cause for concern
While the Titans seem to have the Ravens' number, this is not the same matchup as the past two meetings.
Tennessee’s stout defense from last year has turned into a porous one that can’t stop either the run or the pass. The Titans rank 21st in the league in opponent rushing success and 31st in opponents passing success, according to SharpFootball Stats.
While Tennessee is going to struggle to get stops against a run heavy Baltimore O, the Titans still come in with a fantastic offense of their own. Behind 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry and an explosive passing game, highlighted by 1,000-yard receiver A.J. Brown, the Titans should be able to get their fair share of scoring opportunities.
However, this is a Baltimore defense that is the healthiest it's been all season. Two key members of the Ravens' defensive line, Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams, both missed the Week 11 matchup between these two teams, a 30-24 overtime victory for Tennessee. Now healthy, Baltimore will be better suited to deal with Henry and the Titans' offense.
Bottom line
Given the current state of each team, seeing the Ravens come in favored isn’t all that surprising. This is one of the best defenses in football it's getting healthy at the right time. On the other end, Jackson and the Ravens' offense has built up some positive momentum and is matched up nicely with a poor Tennessee defense. This may be the perfect storm for a Baltimore playoff run.
However, pushing past the key number of three and the Ravens opening at -3.5 was interesting. As stated above, some shops have dropped the line to Baltimore -3 with some extra vig on the Ravens at -120, making the bettor pay a premium for capturing the key number.
I would feel comfortable playing Baltimore at -3, despite the juiced line. Even against a softer schedule, the Ravens were able to establish some momentum that I expect to carry over into the postseason against a weak Tennessee defense.
Do not sleep on the kicking game playing a role either. Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is the best in the league, while Titans kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been up and down this season, going 18-for-26 on field goal attempts. In what could become a back and forth affair, I trust the Ravens' defense and kicking game much more than the Titans' shaky units.
Lastly, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has been profitable in the postseason. Harbaugh is 11-6 against the spread (ATS), covering 64.7% of games. Zoom in on road games, and Harbaugh’s teams are 9-3 ATS. Add it all up and I smell a Ravens cover.
