By my count, we have over 120 games to comb through on Saturday’s college basketball slate.
Luckily for us, we have BetQL U’s debut on Saturday morning at 11 AM EST to get you prepped for the all-day marathon of hoops.
Make sure you check that out tomorrow, but here are a few games that I have circled for Saturday’s card.
As always, these are KenPom projected spreads and totals.
TCU at No. 12 Missouri (-10, 138) - 2 PM EST
This is a miserable spot for the Horned Frogs. After 16 days between games, TCU held a second half lead on the road against Kansas on Thursday, only to squander it and lose an ugly one, 59-51.
Now, the team has to turn around for a Saturday afternoon game against a physical and veteran filled Missouri team coming off a back-and-forth defeat to Auburn on the road.
Missouri has been great off of losses this season, winning on the road both times by an average of 14.5 points. I see this as a get right spot for Missouri who should overwhelm TCU down low.
The Tigers have the highest free throw rate in SEC play and also do a lot of work from inside the arc, hitting on over 53% of two-point shots, which is where TCU yields more than 57% of its points. This has blowout written all over it.
Pick: Missouri -10, up to -11.
No. 16 Florida State (-4, 146) at Georgia Tech - 4 PM EST
A few things stick out in this spot that leads me to the Yellow Jackets as a home dog here.
First, the market could not be higher on Florida State, who have won five straight by an average margin of over 18 points.
The Noles are shooting lights out with an effective field goal percentage of 59.8% in conference play. However, the team is 12th in ACC play in turnover percentage. Matched up with a Georgia Tech that leads the conference in turnover rate, a sloppy effort from Florida State can have them playing catch up.
FSU has a ton of size down low, and can make life hell for the undersized Jackets to get inside and score from close. The Noles defense is allowing 45% on two-point shots in conference play. But, GT should be able to adapt considering they are a perimeter oriented team. Tech is actually shooting slightly better than FSU from deep since conference play began. The Florida State defense allows three-point shots at a high volume with the third highest defensive three-point rate in the league.
This is a great time to sell off Florida State. While FSU is built for a deep March run, the Noles could be caught fat and happy after such a heater.
This matchup is important for an experienced Georgia Tech team that is looking to make the tournament for the first time since 2010, and I expect them to show up big at home.
Pick: Georgia Tech +4
No. 15 Kansas at No. 18 Tennessee (-2, 132) - 6 PM EST
Both these teams may be broken, but I see this projected line as giving too much respect to Kansas. Even though Bill Self has been as good as they come as a road underdog, 25-15-1 against the spread since 2004, I am going to back Tennessee.
Both offenses struggle to score, but ultimately I’m going to side with the home team that is top 10 in turning their opponent over against a Kansas club that lacks a true ball handler.
The Jayhawks’ offense relies heavily on big man David McCormack to bail them out of late clock situations, but Tennessee’s defense is built to stop that with the likes of Yves Pons and John Fulkerson down low.
At anything under three I’m going to be on Tennessee to get right and take care of business at home.
Pick: Tennessee -2, up to -3
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (-4, 144) - 8 PM EST
This matchup should suit Pitt well. Notre Dame’s offense is ranked 38th nationally by KenPom with a mark of 111.7. However, this number is being propped up by its early season success. In ACC play, the team’s offensive efficiency is 99.9, 12th in the conference.
Factor that in with the team’s inability to turn their opponent over -- the Irish are dead last in the ACC in opponent turnover rate -- and the wheels could be coming off for Mike Brey’s club on Saturday.
Looking at Pittsburgh, the team has dropped two straight after beating what appears to be a flat out bad Duke team. While a setback, the Panthers do have Conference Player of the Year contender in Justin Champagnie playing fantastic ball. The sophomore is averaging 20 and 12 on just under 55% shooting, 41% from deep.
I like Pitt to cover with their ability to generate second chances, fourth best in the conference in offensive rebounding rate with over 31%. They will also have the best player on the floor. Lay the short number with Pitt at home.
Pick: Pitt -4, play to -4.5.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary
