Two heavyweights at the top of the food chain meet in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event with No. 2 contender Curtis Blaydes entering as the prohibitive betting favorite against No. 4 contender Derrick Lewis.
Blaydes and Lewis headline the card, but there are 14 other fights on Saturday with plenty of bets to make.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Friday morning
Curtis Blaydes (-450) vs. Derrick Lewis (+350)
This is setting up to be an interesting main event. The only two defeats on Blaydes 14-2-1 record are knockout losses to No. 1 contender Francis Ngannou. On Saturday, Blaydes is pitted against arguably the next most vicious knockout artist in Lewis. How will the large favorite respond?
Blaydes dominated his most recent bout against Alexander Volkov, landing a record 14 takedowns on 25 attempts in the five round fight.
That is Blaydes' bread and butter. A former JUCO National Champion, he is going to try and take this to the mat and wear down his opponent.
However, when the fight versus Volkov entered the fourth and fifth rounds, Blaydes was clearly exhausted and had to grind out the unanimous decision.
Lewis is not the best at defending takedowns, but he is more capable than Volkov, and if this fight becomes a standup battle, Lewis is incredibly dangerous.
Lewis has just a 52% takedown defense, per UFCStats.com, but looked great at bouncing back off of a takedown in his August fight against Aleksei Oleinik.
Oleinik, like Blaydes, needed this fight on the ground and did just that in the first round. Lewis bounced back and finished him 21 seconds into round 2.
Blaydes is much more capable standing than Oleinik, but that fight was a good litmus test to see how Lewis responds at this stage of his career to that sort of action. If Blaydes' cardio remains suspect, this match can become Lewis’ to lose as we go into the later rounds.
At +350, it’s worth a flier on “Black Beast.” For a fighter that can end this one in a single punch, I will take the more than 3-1 payout.
Pick: Lewis +350, play to +320
Phil Hawes (-130) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+110)
This has potential fight of the night written all over it. Both men were able to secure wins in their UFC debuts, albeit through different paths, which generates betting value here.
Hawes won his first UFC fight back in October via knockout in 18 seconds. It was an impressive showing from “Megatron” who has a lot of momentum behind him as a middleweight prospect, coming through Dana White’s Contender Series.
In the other corner, Imavov was able to secure a unanimous decision victory by defending all three takedowns, landing one of his own and doubling up his opponent, Jordan Williams, in strikes.
Hawes has shown he has a questionable gas tank, his last seven wins have been in the first round, with his lone two losses coming in the second round.
If Imavov can weather the early storm from Hawes, I trust he will grow into this fight and secure a victory.
Imavov is a capable finisher as well, seven of nine wins coming inside the distance, but I expect him to start slow and let Hawes gas out. The Frenchmen could be worth a look live after round one as well.
Pick: Imavov +110, play to -110
Danny Chavez (-136) vs Jared Gordon (+116)
I’m going to side with the short dog in Gordon here.
After beginning his career at featherweight and struggling with the weight cut, “Flash” moved up to lightweight when he joined the promotion. There were some spotty results for Gordon, who could not compete with the more established fighters in the weight class, as seen when he was knocked out by Charles Oliveria.
After the Oliveria loss, Gordon returned to featherweight this summer. He put together a dominant victory over Chris Fishgold, landing three takedowns en route to a 30-26 victory.
His opponent, Chavez, is late to UFC at age 33, but looked strong in his debut, beating T.J. Brown by decision.
“The Colombian Warrior” showcased a kick focused approach in his win over Brown, which can stymie Gordon’s pressure heavy offense. However, I see the veteran keeping pace and closing the distance on Chavez, leading to a victory.
Gordon’s defense is not superb, he has been knocked out in all four of his pro losses, but I do think that after some time at lightweight he is better suited for the speed at featherweight. The drop back down to this class may be a turning point in his career.
I like this + money price on the more established fighter.
Pick: Gordon +116, play to +105
Note: Gordon missed weight but the fight is still scheduled to go on.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.