The Big Ten is anchoring Thursday's card with the top two teams in the conference, Michigan and Ohio State, in action.
Although, it is the battle of the two most underwhelming teams during league play that has caught my attention with Iowa traveling to Madison to take on Wisconsin.
The Badgers have become the small betting favorite after opening as underdogs, moving from +1.5 to -1.5, but I still see value in the home squad Thursday night.
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Where: Madison, Wisconsin
When: 7 PM EST
Watch: ESPN
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
No. 21 Wisconsin (-1.5, 144.5) vs. No. 11 Iowa
Wisconsin brought back nearly the entire team from last year that won their last eight games to grab a share of the Big Ten regular season title. However, this year’s iteration has run a bit stale.
The Badgers have dropped four of seven, including squandering a double digit second half lead at home to No. 3 Michigan this past Sunday after the Wolverines went more than three weeks without playing.
While the market could not be lower on Greg Gard’s club, Iowa may be the recipe to get the Badgers right.
The Hawkeyes have had similar issues, also losers of four of their past seven.
The issue for Iowa has been their defense. Now outside of KenPom’s top 100 in defensive efficiency, Iowa has been unable to get second half stops and close out games. The team coughed up double digit leads to Ohio State and Indiana in the past two weeks, and the team was unable to get stops down the stretch against Illinois.
On the flip side, Wisconsin’s issues have been noticeable on the offensive end. The team is overly reliant from three, the fourth highest three-point rate in the Big Ten, but has struggled to make perimeter shots of late. Over their last 10 games, the Badgers are shooting just 30% from beyond the arc.
Wisconsin has stopped going inside to their two big men Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers, instead counting on senior guard D’Mitrik Trice to bail them out of late shot clock situations.
However, Iowa’s defense has been forgiving from deep, the team is 11th in opponent three-point percentage on the third highest volume in league play.
What’s even more concerning for Iowa is that they allow the highest assist percentage. Iowa's defensive rotations are constantly a second too slow and they have been gashed by good guard play. Trice is going to be able to get into the teeth of the Hawkeyes' defense and find open shooters.
My favorite part of this handicap, though, is motivation.
Iowa has proven that they are not the contender many expected this season. However, team’s still get up to play them based on their reputation.
For Wisconsin, the veteran-laden club is coming off of a disheartening result against Michigan, namely for Potter and Reuvers. The two were outclassed by Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and neither Badger grabbed a rebound on Sunday.
I expect both to be licking their chops to get on the floor and contain Iowa big man Luka Garza.
I’m willing to go up to -2 with Wisconsin. The Badgers are primed for a big bounceback performance on Thursday.
Make sure to check out BetQL's best bet page for all of the BetQL Model's favorite plays for Thursday's college basketball card!
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5, up to -2.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
