There is a lot of Over-Reaction Theater starting to take place with Cleveland. Some of the over-reaction is justified, and some of it is general anger at ownership cutting the payroll prosciutto level thin. We are not tackling ownership here and we wish we had a half pound of thin cut prosciutto to continue this column, but alas, you can’t always get what you want. Speaking of the great philosopher Jagger, have you heard this?
Everyone check your Bingo card to see if you had Mick Jagger and Dave Grohl recording the post pandemic We Didn’t Start The Fire. The music is really well done, the lyrics could use some help, but it’s Jagger and Grohl, so this is a win.
Anyway, back to the task at hand. We are two weeks into the 2021 Major League Baseball season, so everything is a little eschew, but we can draw some conclusions. In fact, the Indians already drew one by optioning Ben Gamel to the alternate site in Columbus last week. He slashed 071/235/143 in 17 PA and was fine in centerfield. It was a lotto ticket that has not paid off so far.
So what is small sample size and what is real? Well, I am glad you asked
Shane Bieber is real. He has stuck out eight or more players in 16 consecutive games, breaking Corey Kluber’s record. Here is another amazing Bieber strike out stat.
He will be in the middle of the AL Cy Young conversation all season long and is on the short list of pitchers you want on the hill when you need a win (deGrom, Bieber, Cole, Giolito and I would toss Darvish in that same class, but that is open to debate.)
Now Aaron Civale is an interesting debate. He has been fantastic in three starts this season. He has stymied opposing hitters to the tune of a 2.18 ERA, but the underlying stats are interesting. Civale will never over power people with velocity, average 91.3 MPH on his fastball and his secondary pitches are good, but not all world. He succeeds when he has pin point location causing soft contact hit straight into the ground. The concern is when the soft contact, becomes hard contact.
In previous years, Civale has allowed a 41.5 and 45.1 percent ground ball rate in 2018 and 2019. In 2021, his ground ball rate is 49 percent, while allowing an 86.6 MPH average exit velocity, a slight drop from his previous season.
Some of the reason for success is because he has basically abandoned his sinker in favor of a four seam fastball. His sinker got hit pretty hard in the abridged 2020 season allowing a 310 batting average, a 470 slugging percentage and 3 HR. The average exit velocity of the sinker was 88.3 MPH, exactly the MLB average. The four seam fastball is getting thown about the same amount as the slider in 2021 and only allowing a 150 BA, 450 SLG with 2 HR. The average exit velocity of the fastball is 83.9 MPH. While the HR numbers may not be down, hitters are not crushing the fastball less often and are missing it more.
I am a believer in Civale. I think there will be some regression, but if he can continue to locate, he will be an above average starter and an innings eater.
The bats have been the cause of most of the yelling from the fan base, and for good reason. The Indians are currently hitting 207/286/383 with 19 HRs. They are 24th in wRC+ with an 85 and if you don’t know what that means, Patches O’Houlihan can help explain
He always had such an eloquent way of putting things.
Are they going to be a great team with the sticks this season? No, but I think they can be league average, and while no one, besides the author of this column, champions mediocrity it may be enough to get this team into the playoffs. They just need to get there. Now where the improvement will come is a real question.
I am not worried about Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Cesar Hernandez or Eddie Rosario. Those guys are proven hitters with track records of success and Hernandez has been a victim of some bad luck.
Roberto Perez has been excellent in the early part of the season with the bat, hitting 194/375/484 with three home runs. If you are someone who uses batting average as the lone measurement of a hitter, you are probably having a child in the candy aisle of the grocery store level tantrum. I ask you to please stop, you are making a scene and we have Tootsie Rolls at home.
There is a chance this is a bit of a mirage as nothing Perez is doing is different besides barreling up more pitches when he hits them and aiming for fastballs, but this could be legitimate. Perez has always had a good eye at the plate and if he can hunt for his pitch and capitalize on it, this team will do back flips. I think it is legitimate and he will continue to be an above average hitting catcher for this team.
Now the depressing part of this column, I still have no faith in the Bauers/Chang platoon at first base. Chang has been bad and Bauers has somehow been worse. The Indians first base position has hit 170/235/234 with 0 HRs and a 25 wRC+. Again, consult Patches O’Houlihan if you have any question as to how bad a 25 wRC+ is.
Bauers is hitting the ball a little harder and stopped hitting the ball straight into the ground.
Huzzah!
The problem is he traded soft contact for strike outs. So it is the same amount of outs, just done a different way. It is the equivalent of Sideshow Bob stepping around the rake to instead step on a shovel and have that handle hit him square in the face.
Chang has been better than Bauers, but still not what this team needs. Chang is fine, but he may be better suited in a utility role instead of a platoon role. Bobby Bradley cannot be more of a black hole than what is currently taking place at first.
I am not head over heels about Jordan Luplow playing center field, but I cannot argue with his results with the bat. He has a 250/344/714 with four HRs in the early part of the season. Luplow has upped his average exit velocity by 10 MPH from 2020 and he is hitting the ball harder than any year in his past. He is not just pummeling lefties like he did in his past either; he is starting to see at bats against righties and his tattooing them as well.
I want to believe in this, I really do, but the increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks makes me think this may be a product of small sample size. I really do not want it to be because I think the future of this team takes shape if Luplow takes over right field, Josh Naylor is at first (yes, I am aware he made a dumb error on Saturday at a bad time, but I still think his future is there) and Oscar Mercado/ Daniel Johnson taking over centerfield. What Luplow is doing this season is such an outlier to his career, that it makes the analytical side of my brain question it.
Three Quick Thoughts
I am going to start ending the columns with three thoughts in three sentences or less
1. I love the Clowney signing, because on this team he will be a supplemental piece and not the focal point. If he gets hurt, it is not the end of your pass rush. It will be interesting to see him with another pass rusher who is better than him for the first time since peak J.J. Watt.
2. It bites to see Sheldon Richardson go. He was good against the run and a leader on that defense, but that is the cost of wanting to add more talent at a premier position. He and Nick Chubb are the best interviews because they are men of few words, but they make all of them count.
3. Start looking at defensive tackles in the draft. Defensive Tackle has now become an Indians first base sized hole on the defensive line. They will not take a linebacker at 26, but you can bet your sweet…face, they would take a defensive tackle there or trade up.