The Sony Open in Hawaii marks the first Full-Field Event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season, hosting 144 players at Waialae Country Club on Oahu. This event follows the cozy, no-cut Sentry Tournament, offering a stark contrast with its traditional 36-hole cut. The tournament not only serves as a platform for season debuts of notable players like Hideki Matsuyama but also guarantees points for the Aon Swing 5, impacting entry into subsequent Signature Events.
The BetQL Model is ready for another season of winners on the greens, and it starts here at the Sony Open. Let’s get right into it.
Hideki Matsuyama To Win: +900, BetMGM (3-Star)
The BetQL model has a 3-star wager on Hideki Matsuyama to take home the win at the Sony Open, projecting fair odds of +687 for him to do so. Getting +900 offers some significant value here on the Japanese star. He had an impressive 2024 season, ranking 4th in total strokes gained, and he seems to still be riding that high into 2025. He was incredible at The Sentry, not only taking home the win, but setting a new PGA TOUR record with an 11-under 62 in the final round. He had begun that round with a one-shot lead, and maintained his excellent form to win by three strokes.
It’s clear that coming into The Sony Open, he’s playing at the top of his game, and the model loves his chances at 9/1 odds.
Tom Kim To Finish Top Five: +350, BetMGM (4-star)
The model is seeing some serious value here on Tom Kim as well to finish inside the top five at The Sony Open, with his +350 odds at BetMGM being a 4-star wager. We are projecting fair odds of +240 for him to achieve this, so there is clear value on the young Korean here. He had an encouraging 2024 season, finishing 64th in total strokes gained as just a 21 year old. Kim had a couple of frustrating finishes, like losing in a playoff for the Genesis Championship, and withdrawing from The Players Championship due to illness was not on his to-do list either. Still, he is extremely young and has a very promising future in the sport. In his last 10 starts, Kim finished inside the top 10 four times.
He will look to take another step forward in his development this season on his way to becoming a star for Korea.
Brian Harman To Finish Top 10: +400, BetMGM (4-star)
The model is also taking a look at the odds to finish top 10 at The Sony Open, where we see some value on Brian Harman to do so. At BetMGM right now, he is 4/1 to do so, and we have projected fair odds of just +161 for that to happen. The veteran American golfer is showing some +EV here for us. In 2024, he had quite a successful campaign stats wise, finishing 23rd in total strokes gained. Opening up 2025 at The Sentry, he finished 58th, and struggled with his putting by losing 2.24 strokes. However, he has had plenty of success in the past at The Sony Open, so we are counting on him to bounce back here in an event he is familiar with.
Harman will try to regain his 2024 form and have a successful Sony Open, and we just need him to finish top 10.
Keith Mitchell To Finish Top 20: +333, BetMGM (5-star)
The model’s first 5-star wager of the year belongs to our friend Keith Mitchell, and the legend himself will be in action at The Sony Open this weekend. We are seeing some fantastic value for him to finish inside the top 20 at +333 odds on BetMGM, as we have him with projected fair odds of -124 to do so. The veteran American had a great 2024 season, finishing 21st in total strokes gained, and his improvement has been happening going back to 2023. He finished ninth at the Cognizant Classic and fifth at the 3M Open that year, and many might remember his 7-under 65 performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He also had that historic 4-under on “The Snake Pit” at the Valspar Championship, and he has been a play for the model a lot recently.
It wouldn’t be a good week in golf without a wager on our guy Keith, and we love his recent progression.
Adam Hadwin To Finish Top 40
The model is projecting Hadwin’s fair odds to finish top 40 at The Sony Open at -127, so we are getting some good value here. The veteran had a poor 2024 season, ranking 111th in total strokes gained, but is hoping for a bounce back in 2025. He did have some strong performances last year, like finishing third at the Memorial Tournament by shooting 4-under, and averaging a score of -11 in his last five tournaments. He’s starting to improve his numbers bit by bit, and hopefully he can carry that momentum into The Sony Open for us this weekend.
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