In the 2010s, Madison Bumgarner established himself as a San Francisco Giants icon, and perhaps the greatest postseason pitcher of all time. But for the former World Series MVP, the 2020s have gotten off to a disastrous start, making you wonder if we'll eventually view his five-year/$85 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks as one of the worst given to a pitcher in free agency.
Last an All-Star in 2016, Bumgarner struggled mightily in the pandemic-shortened season. A back injury limited Bumgarner to just nine starts in 2020, and in those nine, the results weren't good, as he posted a 6.48 ERA and a 7.18 FIP.
By all accounts, Bumgarner is healthy in 2021, but the results haven't improved. The 31-year-old surrendered seven hits and six earned runs in a 9-5 loss to the Oakland Athletics Monday, and you can make a case that it was as good of a performance as he's had early in the season. With three starts behind him, Bumgarner has an 11.20 ERA, and his 6.21 FIP and 2.195 WHIP don't suggest that he's been a victim of bad luck in any way.
Should we have seen this coming? Well, yes and no.
Bumgarner was only entering his age-30 season when he reached free agency, but he had much more wear-and-tear on him than most pitchers do by that age. For example, Bumgarner is less than a year older than Zack Wheeler, who also reached the free agent market after the 2019 season. But Bumgarner made his major league debut when he was 19 and logged over 100 postseason innings during his tenure with the Giants. That means that while he and Wheeler were similar ages when they reached free agency, Bumgarner had logged 1,947 regular and postseason innings, as opposed to 749 1/3 for Wheeler.
That said, while one could reasonably predict that the final few years of a Bumgarner deal may not be pretty, it's hard to fathom how much he's struggled across his first 12 starts with the Diamondbacks, a period in which he has a 7.64 ERA and 6.94 FIP. In his final three seasons with the Giants, Bumgarner perhaps was no longer the frontline starter that he once was, but he still posted a 3.57 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 72 starts. That type of pitcher, at a minimum, is a very good middle-of-the-rotation starter. The Diamondbacks haven't even received major league-caliber pitching from Bumgarner.
Perhaps the worst part for the Diamondbacks is the structure of his contract. While he'll make "just" $14 million in 2024 (the final season of the deal), Bumgarner is owed $23 million in each of the next two seasons. For a team that isn't a major-market spender, that will burn a little extra.
12 starts is maybe too early to write off someone's five-year contract, though when you have an ERA north of 7.60 over that period, it's hard to give you the benefit of the doubt. If the Diamondbacks wanted to have a veteran starter at the top of their rotation, they probably should have just kept Zack Greinke, who is six years older than Bumgarner, but is pitching at a higher level and is only under contract through 2021.
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