Entering the 2024-25 season, the Dallas Mavericks are the favorites to repeat as winners of the Southwest Division at +115. Seeing as they played in the NBA Finals last year, this price makes sense.
The Grizzlies had a disastrous season last year, winning just 27 games, but with Ja Morant back and a fully healthy roster, they should be a playoff-caliber team. As a result, Memphis has the second shortest division odds at +260.
New Orleans isn’t far behind at +380. This also makes sense seeing as the Pelicans traded for Dejaunte Murray who will serve as the team's true point guard, something they’ve lacked in previous seasons.
The Spurs will be much more competitive in Victor Wembanyama’s second season, but asking them to win the division is a bit too tall of a task. Therefore, it makes sense they're priced at +2800.
All of these prices make sense based on each team’s talent and outlook for the upcoming season. But weird things happen across an 82-game season. Injuries derail seasons, teams prioritize health over playoff seeding and building chemistry between new and existing players can take time.
That’s why the Houston Rockets to win the division as a longshot is worth taking a closer look at. With their odds sitting at +800, you’re getting great value on a young team that is on the rise.
In his first year as head coach, Ime Udoka took the Rockets from a 22-win team that was 29 games back from the division lead in 2022-23 to a 41-win team that finished just nine games behind the division-winning Mavs in 2023-24. Houston’s offense finished last season just below league average but their defense ranked in the top 10.
With a roster full of young talent, there is good reason to believe the Rockets' offense will continue to develop and catch up to their defensive potential. Alperen Şengün, who is averaging a team-high 21.1 points and 9.3 rebounds, is quickly becoming one of the league’s most versatile centers. He's supported by a dynamic backcourt featuring Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet, along with the promising Jabari Smith Jr.
Cam Whitmore is poised to take a significant leap in his sophomore season, and the Rockets’ third overall draft pick, Reed Sheppard, brings elite shooting skills, potentially making him the best shooter in his class.
Not to mention, after multiple seasons of rebuilding, the Rockets enter the 2024-25 season with a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove. They are a young team eager to show they can compete at the highest level and there’s no better way to do that than by vying for the division title.
The Pelicans will undoubtedly have the annual Zion Williamson injury to navigate. The Grizzlies' depth will be tested, especially if they endure anywhere near the same amount of injuries as they did last year. The Mavericks will have an NBA Finals hangover to overcome. And the Spurs still have plenty to prove. With several reasons for optimism in Houston, a +800 ticket on the Rockets is a great longshot bet to take.
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