As we head into NFL Week 3, the player prop market is heating up with plenty of opportunities for savvy bettors. Whether you're looking at quarterbacks lighting up the scoreboard, running backs dominating the red zone, or tight ends racking up receiving yards, there’s a lot of value to be found. Below, you’ll see my QB, RB, WR and TE targets for Week 3!
Saints QB Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Eagles (+100, BetRivers)
New Saints OC Klint Kubiak has completely transformed this Saints offense and you can make a legitimate argument that betting Carr to win NFL MVP is a smart decision based on what we’ve seen. After throwing three touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Panthers (47-10 win) and two last week against the Cowboys (44-19 win), Carr leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, yards per attempt, passer rating and more. Utilizing the play-action at an NFL-high 52.3% clip (after a league-low 14.4% last season), Carr has been able to find his star weapons like Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara in the passing game and I don’t expect him to stop against the Eagles, who just allowed a miraculous comeback to happen on Monday Night Football against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Double your money with this one.
Panthers QB Andy Dalton Longest Pass Completion Under 34.5 at Raiders (-120, DraftKings)
While the shift from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton under center should benefit Carolina in the short term, I certainly don’t think many chunk plays downfield are going to suddenly happen for this offense. Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are all of a sudden relevant, but from a target and volume perspective, not as deep threats down the field. The Raiders have allowed 144 and 232 passing yards in their first two games and until I see a Panthers WR get separation or show an ability to run after the catch, there’s no way I’m betting over this longest completion number. I think this is a clear misprice.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford Over 213.5 Passing Yards vs. 49ers (-115, Caesars)
Even though he will be without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Stafford has gone over this line in nine straight starts. The last time he went under this number was November 19, 2023. Guys like Tyler Johnson, Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington will have to step up at wideout, but since the Rams are hefty underdogs and will likely be playing from behind, I expect the game script to be a pass-happy one from the Rams. Regardless of who gets the targets, this number is too low for a gunslinger like Stafford.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray Over 228.5 Passing Yards vs. Lions (-114, FanDuel)
We covered how Cardinals outcomes are tied directly to Murray’s individual performance and after the Bills stifled Arizona’s passing game in Week 1, Murray was masterful in a 41-10 win over the Rams last week, going 17-21 for 266 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. In what should be a track meet between two elite offenses playing in a dome, I love his upside as a thrower (and a runner) this week and think he will keep things close against the Lions. Remember that back in Week 1, Detroit allowed Stafford to throw for 317 yards and got absolutely cooked by Cooper Kupp. With Marvin Harrison Jr. coming off a huge breakout performance, it’s hard not to like Murray in this spot.
Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins Over 49.5 Rushing Yards at Steelers (-120, BetMGM)
It appears as though Dobbins is fully healthy and thriving within run-heavy HC Jim Harbaugh’s philosophy with the Chargers. Averaging 9.9 yards per carry and 133.0 rushing yards per game so far (unsustaniable, but impressive), Dobbins leads the entire NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt. Priced down due to the fact that he’s facing an elite Steelers run defense, I am absolutely going to go over 49.5 rushing yards for the most efficient back in the league through the first couple weeks. This Chargers team is committed to establishing the run and will continue to play that brand of hard-nosed football. This contest may be low-scoring, but I certainly think Dobbins is going to get the volume needed to record 50-plus rushing yards.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Over 24.5 Receiving Yards at Seahawks (-137, Caesars)
With Tua Tagovailoa out and Skyar Thompson in as Dolphins QB1, the offense is going to look a bit different. With that being said, I wouldn’t touch a Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle prop due to the uncertainty. What isn’t uncertain, however, is De’Von Achane’s value to Miami’s offense. Not only did he just take 22 carries for 96 yards in a 31-10 loss to the Bills last week, but he racked up seven catches on seven targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. In Week 1, he caught seven of seven targets for 76 yards, too. He can easily go over this 24.5-yard receiving mark with one catch due to his explosiveness, but I’m even higher on him as a pass-catcher this week with Thompson under center. I assume that the new QB is going to be given some easy throws to make and when plays break down, he will rely on Achane to make things happen as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on Achane’s rushing total either, but I love this receiving total way more, especially with the threat of Raheem Mostert (chest) returning from his injury.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry To Score A Touchdown at Cowboys (-120, BetMGM)
Henry has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks since joining the Ravens and carried the ball 18 times for 84 yards in a tight game against the Raiders last week. Both of these teams have a lot to prove, but this might be the best price of any player prop all week given his role and his perceived usage in the red zone against a Cowboys team that just got crushed by the Saints. Dallas has allowed four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, most in the NFL.
Saints WR Rashid Shaheed Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards vs. Eagles (-120, BetMGM)
In Week 2, Shaheed caught a 70-yard touchdown pass which happened to be his seventh reception of 50-plus yards of air distance since the start of 2023, most in the NFL over that span. As mentioned above with Carr’s prop, Kubiak’s offense has completely revolutionized New Orleans’ offense and I expect Shaheed to continue being one of the biggest beneficiaries. Last week, the Eagles allowed a 41-yard completion to Falcons WR Darnell Mooney and in Week 1, Philly allowed a 70-yard touchdown to Packers WR Jayden Reed and a 29-yard grab by tight end Tucker Kraft as well, so they’re susceptible to a big play or two. Shaheed has cashed this prop in four of his last five starts and in 17 of his last 27 dating back to the boring offenses of past years. I love this option and the number.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Over 68.5 Receiving Yards at Rams (-135, Caesars)
With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel out and George Kittle banged up, this is going to be a big Brandon Aiyuk breakout week. Over the last three seasons with Samuel off the field, Aiyuk has attracted a 29% target share and 45% air yards share and now gets to face a Rams defense that just gave up 41 points to the Cardinals last week. I expect Aiyuk to be peppered with targets in this one and am going to fade Mason, who has astronomically-high rushing props.
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 59.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions (-115, BetMGM)
I like Murray’s upside as a passer this week so naturally, I’m going to also like one of his receivers. Coming off a four-catch, 130-yard, two TD performance (both of which came on the first two possessions) against the Rams last week, Harrison now gets to face a Lions secondary who was burned by Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin in back-to-back weeks to start the year. Detroit has allowed the most receptions (19.0), targets (27.5) and yards (223.0) per game to opposing wide receivers among all NFL teams. This is a smash spot for Harrison.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers Over 44.5 Receiving Yards vs. Panthers (-117, BetRivers)
Bowers might already be the best tight end in the NFL. Catching passes from Gardner Minshew, he has racked up 15 catches on 17 targets for 156 yards through two weeks, all of which lead NFL tight ends. Lining up in the slot (56.5% of his snaps) and on the outside, Bowers has seen a 25% target share in both Weeks 1 and 2 and should feast on Carolina’s defense. I’d probably bet over this number if it was 59.5.
OTHER PLAYER PROPS - LATE ADDITIONS
Giants QB Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions vs. Browns (-128, FanDuel)
Rams RB Kyren Williams Over 3.5 Receptions vs. 49ers (+105, DraftKings)
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 Receiving Yards vs. Texans (-112, FanDuel)
Bears WR D.J. Moore Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Colts (-125, DraftKings)
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