Senators at Hurricanes Under 6.5: -134, FanDuel
Well, we only have one game on the slate for the NHL tonight, so our options are very limited here. The Ottawa Senators will take on the Carolina Hurricanes in an eastern conference battle, and I am taking the under here in a more contrarian play. I think most people will see these two teams and want to bet the over, but there is a reason it has moved to 6 at some places.
Ottawa has been one of the teams I have harped on for years now, but they keep giving me nothing but mid results. They are 13-13-2 right now, but once again, they have played much better than their record indicates. I’m beginning to think they are just cursed with how unlucky they have been. The Sens are scoring 3.11 goals per game and getting 31 shots on goal as well, so they have a solid offense, even if it hasn’t been as good as the previous few seasons. Defensively, they have improved by leaps and bounds, allowing just 27.4 shots per game. New netminder Linus Ullmark is a vast improvement to what they have got in years past, with a 2.70 GA/G and .903 SV%.
Carolina is an offensive machine, scoring a huge 3.71 goals per game and getting 32.3 shots on goal as well. They have been ripping the puck and putting it in the net, but they have also been spectacular on defense, allowing only 25.1 shots on their own net per game. With the return of Pyotr Kochetkov in the net, they should be better there, as he owns a 2.64 GA/G and .894 SV%. The latter isn’t the best number, but he is at least average between the pipes, and this defense makes him even better.
I think 6.5 is a bit too high of a number with how good both defenses have been playing, and there is just one left in the market at FanDuel. Everywhere else at the time of this writing seems to have gone to 6, so grab this now while it is available.
In terms of props, I am going to back Brett Burns to go under 2.5 SOG at -170. I know it is juiced to the moon, but since we have one game here to pick from, there isn’t much else I feel comfortable with. Burns hasn’t really been getting many shots on the net, and has gone over this number just one time in his last five games. The Senators defense is quite good and limits shots, so I feel like they can keep him from getting three tonight on Ullmark.
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