Before you even start reading this article, I know you are thinking how foolish it must be to assume that Watson could actually be underrated. That is entirely possible, and he could just be terrible no matter what he has around him. Lord knows he has had plenty of chances after his off field issues derailed what was a successful career at one point, but there are also a few reasons to believe that he isn’t quite as bad as he has shown to begin the 2024 season. Some positive regression could be coming for the much-maligned signal-caller.
For starters, his receivers have really had an issue with doing what they are supposed to do, which is catch the football. According to Pro Football Reference, his targets have a 12.5 percent drop rate, and Cleveland receivers have dropped 14 total balls already this season in three games. That is the most in the NFL so far, so he has not been getting any help from his pass-catchers.
On top of this, he has been pressured on 36.9 percent of dropbacks, which is also the highest percentage in the league. It is extremely hard to be successful in the NFL when you constantly have defenders in your face and your receivers drop the football. Now, I am not taking all the blame away from Watson, who surely has contributed to the offensive failures of the Browns, but it can’t all be put on him.
This coming weekend, Watson could have a chance to prove that it isn’t all his fault to the masses. He’ll be facing the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that cannot generate a pass rush outside of one Maxx Crosby. They have the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL at just 13.3 percent, and this is despite having the third-highest blitz rate in football at 37.1 percent. Simply put, they can’t get to the QB outside of Crosby.
Does this mean for certain that he will have a more effective and efficient game? Certainly not, he could go out there and suck it up just like he has been doing. All I wanted to do with this article is explain that there are some other factors there that could explain his very poor play to start the year. It is possible that he has a better game against the Raiders, a team that is in shambles anyway with their head coach calling out his players for being lazy.
Cleveland is a +2.5 underdog this weekend on the road in Vegas, with an insanely low total of 37.5. Clearly, the sportsbooks don’t think there will be much offensive success here. I honestly don’t know what side I will be on here, but I would probably imagine Cleveland since they are on the road. While it is possible we see the old Watson, this could also be what everyone thinks it is going to be: the 2024 version of the Toilet Bowl.
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