The AFC and NFC Championship Games are set to deliver high-stakes drama, and the player props market offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to cash in. From Saquon Barkley chasing history to Xavier Worthy’s potential as Kansas City’s x-factor, there’s no shortage of intriguing storylines and betting angles. Let’s dive into the top prop picks for this weekend’s action and uncover the best value plays to watch.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Over 141.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Commanders (-114, BetRivers)
Through 11 career games against the Commanders, Barkley averaged 137.0 rushing + receiving yards, which is the 2nd-most all-time against a single opponent with at least 10 games played, trailing only Hall of Famer Jim Brown. In the regular season, Barkley absolutely crushed Washington in both matchups against them, amassing 198 (146 rushing, 52 receiving) and 150 (all rushing) yards against them. Now with the third-most rushing yards ever in a season including the playoffs, Barkley (2,329) is chasing Terrell Davis’ 1997 (2,331) and 1998 (2,476) marks. There’s a very realistic chance he breaks the 1998 record in this game and he will smash the record if the Eagles advance to the Super Bowl. This is obviously a huge number, but he’s been performing at a never-before-seen level of efficiency and production.
Commanders WR Dyami Brown Over 40.5 Receiving Yards vs. Eagles (-117, BetRivers)
Opposing defenses have keyed in on Terry McLaurin and made it a point to prevent Jayden Daniels from running wild in these playoffs. That has led to two huge performances against the Buccaneers (five receptions, 89 yards, TD) and Lions (six receptions, 98 yards). I’m buying this random playoff breakout, too. Per Dataroma on X, he ranks 1st on his team in receiving yards per game (93.5), targets per route run (28%), yards per route run (4.07) and 2nd in route share (70.1%), target percentage (19.7%) and first read percentage (18.4%). All of a sudden, the Commanders have a legitimate WR2 behind McLaurin.
Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy Over 53.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-120, Caesars)
While Travis Kelce will be the focus of most of the attention and others like Hollywood Brown will pose a threat, I consider Worthy to be Kansas City’s x-factor. He caught five of six passes for 45 yards against the Texans last week and took a carry for -8 yards, but I want to add in his rushing yards nonetheless in this one. He took three, three and two carries in his last three regular season games and got at least one carry in 12 of his 16 regular season games played. Given his otherworldly speed and proven ability to get over this number in receiving yards alone, I love this prop this week.
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid Over 31.5 Receiving Yards vs. Chiefs (-120, BetMGM)
When these two teams met in the regular season (November 17), Kincaid didn’t play and Dawson Knox caught four passes for 40 yards while fellow tight end Zach Davidson caught a pass for five yards. Kincaid’s snap counts have been 38% and 51% in Buffalo’s first two playoff games and Knox has surprisingly out-snapped him, but I expect plenty of 12 personnel looks in this matchup. No team in the entire NFL has allowed more receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs (69.78). He recorded 47 yards against the Broncos and just 11 yards last week against the Ravens, but I expect Kincaid to be heavily utilized in this one. I’ll be exploring some alternate lines as well.
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