At the beginning of the WNBA season, both the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty opened at even money odds at local sportsbooks. The Aces returned just about their entire roster and added Candace Parker to the mix. The Liberty added free agents Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot. Months later these are the final two teams that survived. Many believe the WNBA Finals matchup could go the distance and perhaps last the entire five games in the series.
The season series was tied at 2-2, but that doesn't include the Liberty's 82-63 victory in the Commissioner's Cup on August 15 in Las Vegas. Not only did New York win the hardware, they shared the $1-million prize money. Now, the Liberty are coming after the Aces title. Las Vegas has the home court advantage, but even that came down to the latter stages of the season, after the top-seeded Aces looked like they were running away early in the campaign. The Aces have been installed as a -185 WNBA Finals favorite and are a -4 1/2 point choice in Sunday's opening game.
The Aces are looking to become the first repeat champions in the W since the Sparks did it 21 years ago. Las Vegas forward A'ja Wilson, who finished third in the MVP balloting, will try to lead her team against Breanna Stewart, who took home this year's Most Valuable crown in a tightly contested vote. Wilson has a chip on her shoulder heading into the series and her Aces lost in the Wubble to Stewart's Seattle Storm in 2020. Wilson has picked up her game in the playoffs averaging three more points and two rebounds more than in the regular season. Stewart averaged 23 points and 9 boards during the regular season.
While there are several sharpshooters on each team, the series could be decided on rebounding and second chance opportunities. The Aces fended off Dallas in the semifinal round, despite giving up a lot of points on the offensive glass. The Aces will need to box out the likes of Stewart and Jonquel Jones, who had a 16 point, 15 rebound night in Las Vegas in the Commissioner's Cup, which earned her MVP.
The Aces don't have a strong bench either. It was bolstered by Alysha Clark this season, a Las Vegas free agent aquisition. Clark was the league's Sixth Woman of the Year. She has stepped up her game by knocking down key perimeter shots during the season.
The backcourt could also be a deciding factor. The Aces have the best point guard in the league in Chelsea Gray. Kelsey Plum can hit three-pointers in rhythm. And Jackie Young could be an X factor of sorts, even though she's become one of the WNBA's top scoring threats. They face a Liberty backcourt that has Courtney Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu. Both can fill it up. And, of concern for Las Vegas, is New York's shooting behind the arc where they were 48% in uncontested threes in the five games vs Las Vegas (ESPN stat.)
Here is the series schedule (PT):
Game 1 Liberty @ Aces 10/8 12 noon
Game 2 Liberty @ Aces 10/11 6pm
Game 3 Aces @ Liberty 10/15 12 noon
Game 4 Aces @ Liberty 10/18 5pm (if needed)
Game 5 Liberty @ Aces 10/20 6pm (if needed)
* All Aces home games at Michelob Ultra Arena are sold out